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  Yahoo News 7 Nov 07
Global-warming gases set to rise by 57 percent by 2030

PlanetArk 8 Nov 07
China, India Growth Force Climate Change Action - IEA
Story by Gerard Wynn

BBC News 7 Nov 07
Energy needs 'to grow inexorably'

PlanetArk 8 Nov 07
World to Stay Hooked on Fossil Fuels - IEA

LONDON - The world will stay hooked on fossil fuels up to 2030, although oil's share of global energy demand will fall slightly, while coal use rises, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday.

In its annual World Energy Outlook, the IEA predicted fossil fuels would account for 84 percent of the overall increase in energy demand between 2005 and 2030 when consumption will reach 17.7 billion tonnes of oil equivalent (toe), up from 11.4 billion toe in 2005.

Oil will remain the single largest source of fuel, but its share in primary global demand will fall from 35 percent to 32 percent.

Continuing the spectacular growth of the past few years, coal sees the biggest increase in demand in absolute terms, jumping by 73 percent between 2005 and 2030 and pushing its share of total energy demand up from 25 percent to 28 percent.

China and India will be responsible for much of this rise.

The share of natural gas, a much less polluting fuel than coal, rises more modestly from 21 to 22 percent and nuclear generation, which does not produce any emissions of carbon dioxide, is expected to shrink from 6 percent of the mix to 5 percent.

Hydro electricity holds steady at 2 percent, biomass and waste declines from 10 percent of the energy mix to 9 percent and other renewables creep up to 2 percent from 1 percent.

Primary energy demand is demand for energy as a raw material to produce heat, refined oil products or electricity.

For electricity generation, coal remains the main source, with its share of total generation rising from 40 percent in 2005 to 45 percent in 2030.

Oil-fired generation eases from 7 percent of electricity production to 3 percent, while gas generation rises from 20 percent to 23 percent.

Nuclear electricity accounts for 9 percent of power generation by 2030, down from 15 percent in 2005, and hydro-electric power decreases its share from 16 percent to 14 percent.

Biomass and waste should account for 2 percent of power generation by 2030, up from 1 percent in 2005, and the share of wind and other renewables rises to 4 percent of power generation, also from 1 percent, the IEA said.

For further coverage of the IEA World Energy Outlook (Reporting by Barbara Lewis)

BBC News 7 Nov 07
Energy needs 'to grow inexorably'

The global demand for energy is set to grow inexorably through to 2030 if governments do not change their policies, warns a top energy official.

Nobuo Tanaka, executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), said such a rise would threaten energy security and accelerate climate change.

He said energy needs in 2030 could be more than 50% above current levels, with fossil fuels still dominant.

Mr Tanaka was speaking at the launch of the IEA's World Energy Outlook report.

Rapid economic growth in China and India would be the main drivers behind the rise, he said as he unveiled the agency's annual flagship publication.

"The emergence of new major players in global energy markets means that all countries must take vigorous, immediate and collective action to curb runaway energy demand," he warned.

"Rapid economic development will undoubtedly continue to drive up energy demand in China and India, and will contribute to a real improvement in the quality of life for more than two billion people.

"This is a legitimate aspiration that needs to be accommodated and supported by the rest of the world."

Rising emissions

The World Energy Outlook 2007 report warned that much of the increased demand for energy would be met by coal.

As a result, energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions could rise by 57% - from 27 giga-tonnes in 2005 to 42 giga-tonnes in 2030, it said.

Even in the report's "alternative policy scenario", which takes into account the governments' proposed action to save energy and cut emissions, CO2 levels are set to rise by 25%.

But it offered a glimmer of hope within its "450 Stabilisation" case study.

It described a notional strategy for governments to stabilise CO2 levels in the atmosphere at about 450 parts per million (ppm), which some scientists and policy makers suggest is an acceptable concentration.

"Emissions savings come from improved efficiency in industry, buildings and transport, switching to nuclear power and renewables, and the widespread deployment of carbon capture and storage," the report said.

This approach would see global emissions peak in 2012 then fall sharply below 2005 levels by 2030, it suggested.

But it added: "Exceptionally quick and vigourous policy action by all countries, and unprecedented technological advances, entailing substantial costs, would be needed to make this case a reality."

Mr Tanaka stressed the need for urgency in the battle against climate change: "We need to act now to bring about a radical shift in investment in favour of cleaner, more efficient and more secure energy technologies."

The UK's Energy Secretary, John Hutton, endorsed the IEA's findings and agreed that urgent action by politicians was needed.

"As the IEA states, it is a lack of international political will, not technological innovation, that is preventing us from reducing emissions while securing energy supplies to power our homes and businesses for the years ahead," he told BBC News.

"The UK must continue to lead by example by embracing innovation while also ensuring it takes advantage of existing low carbon technologies.

"We share view that there should be the broadest possible energy mix and will be carefully examining the recommendations of this report as we prepare to introduce our Energy Bill."

PlanetArk 8 Nov 07
China, India Growth Force Climate Change Action - IEA
Story by Gerard Wynn

LONDON - The International Energy Agency on Wednesday painted a grim picture of a tough and urgent global challenge to avoid the "alarming" climate change implications of soaring energy demand in China and India.

The report suggested that restricting global climate change within safe limits, as defined by the European Union, may be out of reach, at least at an affordable price.

The IEA's influential World Energy Outlook was published less than a month before nearly 200 countries meet in Bali, Indonesia, to try to launch two-year talks on a new, global deal to fight climate change.

"There has so far been more talk than action in most countries," the IEA said.

"The consequences for China, India, the OECD (industrialised nations) and the rest of the world of unfettered growth in global energy demand are, however, alarming."

The answers to spiralling energy demand and carbon emissions included energy efficiency and a switch to low carbon alternatives to fossil fuels such as renewable energy.

The IEA, energy adviser to 26 industrialised nations, said global carbon emissions would rise by 57 percent by 2030 on current trends, and was consistent with a long-term global temperature increase of 5-6 degrees centigrade, using recent UN estimates.

Even if governments implemented all climate-friendly policies under consideration carbon emissions would still rise by more than a quarter by 2030, implying a 3 degrees temperature hike.

Under such policies renewable energy would supply 17 percent of all energy needs by 2030, but still much less than coal.

Cutting carbon emissions below current levels, and keep climate change within EU-defined safety limits, would require "unprecedented" political action.

"Exceptionally strong and immediate policy action would be essential for this to happen and the associated costs would be very high," the IEA said.

Some fossil fuel power plants would have to be retired early at a cost of US$1 trillion, and electricity prices would be much higher, it said.

CHINA, INDIA

"Staggering" economic growth helping curb poverty in Asia's economic tigers, and especially China and India, was most to blame for the expected surge in carbon emissions.

China alone was responsible for 58 percent of the increase in carbon emissions worldwide from 2000-2006.

Its contribution to global carbon emissions by 2030 would rise to more than a quarter from a fifth now, but per capita would still be less than half the United States'.

The IEA called for a "global response" to find energy solutions to make Asia's economic growth more sustainable.

It confirmed a Reuters report earlier this year that China was on track to overtake the United States as the world's biggest carbon emitter in 2007. It forecast India would overhaul Russia and become the world's number three emitter by 2015. On current trends China would add by 2030 more power plants than are installed now in the United States, driving a bigger jump in the use of coal -- the highest-carbon fossil fuel -- than any other source of energy globally. The threat of diminished global energy security, as fewer countries tightened their grip on the world's oil supplies, could help the climate change fight.

"Many of the policies available to alleviate energy insecurity can also help to mitigate local pollution and climate change, and vice-versa," it said.

(Reporting by Gerard Wynn, Editing by William Hardy),

Yahoo News 7 Nov 07
Global-warming gases set to rise by 57 percent by 2030

Emissions of greenhouse gases will rise by 57 percent by 2030 compared to current levels, which will increase the Earth's surface temperature by at least three degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit), the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday.

In its annual report on global energy needs, the Paris-based agency projected greenhouse-gas pollution would rise by 1.8 percent annually by 2030 on the basis of projected energy use and current efforts to mitigate emissions.

The IEA saw little chance of reducing this pollution to a stable, safer level any time soon.

It also poured cold water on a scenario outlined earlier this year by the United Nations' main authority on global warming, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The IPCC said that in order to limit the average increase in global temperatures to 2.4 C (4.3 F) -- the most optimistic of any scenario -- the concentration of greenhouse gases would have to stabilise at 450 parts per million (ppm) of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere.

To achieve this goal, CO2 emissions would have to peak by 2015 at the latest, then fall by between 50 and 85 percent by 2050, the panel.

But the IEA's World Energy Outlook report saw no peak in emissions before 2020.

To achieve the 450ppm target would mean that CO2 from energy sources would have to peak by 2012, which in turn would require a massive drive in energy efficiency and a switch to non-fossil fuels, the report said.

"Emissions savings (would have to) come from improved efficiency in fossil-fuel use in industry, buildings and transport, switching to nuclear power and renewables, and the widespread deployment of CO2 capture and storage in power generation and industry," the IEA said.

"Exceptionally quick and vigorous action by all countries and unprecedented technological advances, entailing, substantial costs, would be needed to make this case a reality."

Under the IEA's most optimistic scenario -- which takes into account measures currently in the planning stage for tackling emissions -- greenhouse-gas pollution would rise by one percent per year, rather than 1.8 percent on present trends.

Emissions would decline steadily beyond 2030, translating into an eventual rise in temperatures of "about" three C (5.4 F), IEA analyst Trevor Morgan said.

In contrast, under the IEA's most pessimistic scenario, warming could reach six C (10.8 F) if China and India continue their strong growth relentlessly, using coal as a principal energy source.

By 2030, the biggest polluters would be China, the United States, India, Russia and Japan, the IEA said.

In a massive report issued this year, the IPCC said that since 1900, the mean global atmospheric temperature had risen by 0.8 C (1.44 F) and levels of CO2, which account for about three-quarters of greenhouse-gas output, are now at their highest in 650,000 years.

This temperature rise has already caused glaciers, snow and ice cover to fall back sharply in alpine regions, reduced the scope of Arctic sea ice and caused Siberian and Canadian permafrost to retreat.

By 2100, global average surface temperatures could rise by between 1.1 C (1.98 F) and 6.4 C (11.52 F) compared to 1980-99 levels, the IPCC said.

Heatwaves, flooding, drought, tropical storms and surges in sea level are among the events expected to become more frequent, more widespread and/or more intense this century, the scientists said.
links
EIA press release with links to the full report
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