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  Straits Times 29 Aug 07
Climate Change: Asean has its work cut out
By Lee Poh Onn

THERE has been increasing media coverage of climate change in the past year. The link that greenhouse gas emissions have to droughts, extreme weather, crop yields, destruction of biodiversity, rising sea levels and floods has been discussed at length.

In many respects, the climate change mantra has assumed an importance equal to, if not greater than, the 'sustainable development' movement in the 1980s.

There was then a lot of discussion on how resources were being depleted beyond natural replacement levels, and how 'abuse' of the environment and its natural resources would eventually be detrimental to humankind.

Is the climate change agenda here to stay? Will this new awareness gain momentum and move beyond what the sustainable development agenda has achieved?

Has Asia a lot of catching up to do in terms of raising its level of environmental consciousness and halting the process of environmental degradation? What is the score-card like for Asean countries?

Are the mitigation of greenhouse gases and protection of the environment compatible with economic development and industrialisation?

There is perhaps hope that the climate change agenda will maintain its momentum and move further than the sustainable development one in the 1980s, as the circumstances now are very different.

In recent years, especially in the last two, the impact of climate change has been so stark that many governments are no longer ignoring the issue and have pushed the mitigation of greenhouse gases to the forefront.

Civil society groups have been very important in raising consciousness. Many organisations have helped to raise the level of environmental consciousness in the region.

Asian governments have also played a role through public campaigns and education.

Much of this environmental consciousness can be traced to the efforts of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which brought the issue of climate change to the forefront in recent years.

The IPCC was established about 20 years ago and comprises a worldwide panel of scientific experts. The information generated by this organisation has fuelled discussion and action among governments, civil society groups and activists, and the public.

Becoming more environmentally consciousness is half the battle won. Action to halt degradation is the other half.

Consciousness needs to be accompanied by action and it may take some time before Asian nations rise to that level present in the more environmentally conscious developed countries.

Looking more closely at the region, it is heartening to note that Asean is now committed to addressing issues related to the environment.

With Singapore hosting the Asean Summit later this year, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong stressed during his Aug 7 Asean Day Lecture that 'environmental protection cannot be ignored and sacrificed, for the sake of development and economic growth'.

Asean's environmental track record is not good news all the way.

In recent years, the rate of deforestation is estimated to have fallen to 1.35 per cent, from 1.4 per cent in the 1980s. But Asean still has the highest rate of deforestation in the world. Deforestation averages 0.2 per cent per year worldwide.

There is also the landmark Asean Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution to manage pollution generated by the illegal burning of forests. Asean has been cohesive enough to come up with an agreement which has moved beyond mere talk to something formal and legal.

However, to date, only seven countries are signatories to this pact. Cambodia, Indonesia and the Philippines have yet to ratify it. Indonesia, where a lot of illegal burning activities have been detected, announced in October last year that it would ratify it, though this has not taken place yet.

In Asia, the IPCC estimated that if atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations were to double from pre-industrial levels, developing countries would suffer economic costs in the form of GDP declines of 5 to 9 per cent.

If we do nothing now, carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere are expected to double by the year 2100.

The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change published last year suggested that getting carbon emissions down by 60 to 80 per cent below the 1990 level by 2050 will cost economies 1 per cent of global GDP annually.

But not acting will incur annual costs five to 20 times that.

Is environmental protection compatible with economic development?

Using the mitigation of greenhouse gases as an example, the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) under the Kyoto Protocol allows developed countries to invest in emission reduction projects in developing countries (for example, in reforestation projects or energy-efficient schemes) to claim certified emission reductions.

Such credits can then be used by the developed countries to meet their reduction targets under the Kyoto Protocol.

The CDM offers clear economic incentives for climate change mitigation and development which will benefit both developed and developing countries that are signatories to the agreement.

Given today's greater environmental consciousness, Asean is more ready to cope with the challenges.

Needless to say, the political will of Asean governments, and continuation of the Kyoto Protocol post- 2012, will play important roles in maintaining the current momentum and moving it beyond what was achieved in the earlier era of the sustainable development movement in the 1980s.

The writer is a Fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore.
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