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  Straits Times 23 Aug 07
Climate change and Asia's padi fields
New research vital to combat threat to continent's staple food from rising sea levels and temperatures
By Michael Richardson

SINCE the Green Revolution began in Asia just over 40 years ago with the release of the first modern rice variety by the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) in the Philippines, the global rice harvest has more than doubled, keeping slightly ahead of population growth and bringing down market prices for the grain by 80 per cent in the last two decades so that the poor can afford it.

However, the advances in plant breeding and farm management that sustained the Green Revolution are facing new challenges.

As the average annual temperature rises in many parts of the world, one of the biggest concerns is the impact on agriculture. Yet there has been relatively little research on how humanity will feed itself in a climate that is both warmer and more unpredictable.

More than half the world's 6.6 billion people depend on rice for their nourishment, which is sensitive to both temperature and water levels. It is the staple food for most of the planet's poorest people, providing about 20 per cent of direct human calorie intake worldwide.

This issue is of special concern to Asia where rice is the dominant food crop and relies heavily on fresh water, as well as fertiliser, to grow and produce high yields.

Rice is grown in over 100 countries. But nearly 90 per cent of the land used for rice is in Asia, where eight countries - India, China, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Thailand, Vietnam, Myanmar and the Philippines - account for 80 per cent of the global rice area.

Prices soar, productivity stagnates

WORLD rice production is now expanding at less than 2 per cent annually and rice-growing countries are finding it difficult to raise output much beyond this level.

Global prices for rice have doubled in the past two years to reach a 10-year high. Urea fertiliser prices have tripled in the last five years.

With demand increasing relative to supply, world rice reserves are at a 30-year low.

This is putting added pressure on rice-importing countries, such as Indonesia, to return to self-sufficiency. Indonesia, the world's fifth most populous nation, has been struggling for several years to lift rice production.

It has to pay for increasingly expensive rice imports, and shortages could trigger price rises in Indonesia, causing social unrest and political instability.

Experts say that climate change is already affecting Asia's ability to produce rice and this could slow or even undermine efforts to reduce poverty - one of the region's great success stories, particularly in East Asia.

The IRRI is the world's leading international rice research and training centre. Although based in the Philippines, it has offices in 13 other countries in Asia.

Its scientists say that both higher maximum and higher minimum temperatures can decrease rice yields. They also say that the positive effects of increased amounts of carbon dioxide - the main greenhouse gas - do not compensate for an overall decrease in rice quality from the effects of global warming.

Meanwhile, a long-term problem of fresh-water scarcity is looming against a backdrop of climate extremes and sea-level rise.

Almost two-thirds of the fresh water for human use in Asia goes into rice production. Climate extremes such as more frequent or more intense flooding, droughts, cyclones and heatwaves pose incalculable threats to farming.

Sea-level rise is projected to be in the range of 10cm to 85cm over the next century, depending on the climate scenario used.

The implications for rice production in some low-lying coastal areas of Asia are grave. Vietnam's rice industry, for example, depends heavily on farms in the Mekong and Red River deltas. Much of this land is under 1m above sea level and much of the rest is at a height of just 1m to 5m.

Race to find solutions

The IRRI is already working on ways to help Asian rice farmers adapt to adverse circumstances. Earlier this year, it established a group of experts to assess the direct and indirect consequences of climate change on rice production, and find ways of overcoming or mitigating them.

The initial phase of the research is focusing on how to make rice more resistant to heat stress and how to grow it using less water.

First results using new varieties grown in dry land conditions, just like other cereals such as maize or wheat, are promising. Using early-generation varieties of this 'aerobic' rice in the Philippines and northern China, water inputs were 30 per cent to 50 per cent less than in flooded systems, with yields that were only 20 per cent to 30 per cent lower. The maximum yield using this technique was about 5.5 tonnes per hectare.

New management systems are being developed by the IRRI to optimise water and nutrient inputs and to ensure long-term sustainability.

Although rice production will be affected by climate change, rice farming can also amplify the problem. Much of the global crop is grown in flooded fields. The chemistry in this system releases significant amounts of methane, a global warming gas about 20 times more potent than carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas that comes mainly from burning fossil fuels like coal and oil.

However, some ways of farming rice help reduce methane emissions. The IRRI is actively researching these processes and promoting the results wherever they can be applied.

But given the scale of the challenges facing Asia's rice industry, more money is needed to fund expanded research and extension work by the IRRI, an autonomous, non-profit institution dedicated to the well-being of present and future generations of rice farmers and consumers, particularly those with low incomes.

It is one of 15 centres funded through the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR), an association of public and private donor agencies. Around 1,000 modern rice varieties, or approximately half the number released in South and South-east Asia over the last 40 years, are linked to germplasm developed by the IRRI and its partners.

Yet when the need is greatest, some donors are turning away.

IRRI director-general Robert Zeigler says in the latest annual report that the organisation faces 'a very tough environment'.

While the US government decided not to reduce its support to the IRRI and Britain and Germany increased funding, Japan and the Netherlands cut their aid.

Meanwhile, the World Bank and the European Commission are squabbling over how their funding to all CGIAR centres should be handled.

The IRRI has offered to stump up US$2 million (S$3 million) of its own research funds as part of an effort to raise raise between US$20 million and US$25 million for a five-year programme to help prepare the Asian rice industry for the impact of climate change.

It is now looking for new donors and innovative ways to tap into the spirit of philanthropy emerging in Asia.

Maybe some of the region's property, industrial and financial tycoons will contribute.

Whether they realise it or not, they have benefited hugely from the prosperity and stability underpinned by rice.

The writer is a visiting senior research fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies. This is a personal comment.
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