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  Today Online 2 Jun 07
PM Lee waves red flag over green issues
Nazry Bahrawi

Straits Times 2 Jun 07
Climate change a long-term security threat: PM
US-China ties and Middle East conflicts are two other scenarios that can affect outlook for region
By Zakir Hussain & Goh Chin Lian

PRIME Minister Lee Hsien Loong yesterday highlighted a new dimension to the problem of climate change. He sees it as a potential long-term threat to world security, not just an economic or environmental worry. It is one of three scenarios he painted that could put a damper on his optimistic outlook for the region.

The other two: United States-China relations and the Middle-East conflicts.

On the environment, he noted that when ecosystems change, a chain of events is set off, including people being displaced across borders and countries competing for scarce resources.

All this can lead to internal strife and conflict among countries, said Mr Lee at a dinner for more than 200 participants of the Sixth Shangri-La Dialogue. Hailing from more than 25 countries, they are attending the annual security summit organised by the London-based International Institute of Strategic Studies.

However, Mr Lee pointed out that there is a cost to dealing with the climate change problem - slower growth. This is particularly risky for most East Asian countries where 'political legitimacy...has been premised on continued high growth', he said.

He acknowledged that some progress had been made to tackle the problem, including China signalling that the environment is a new priority. 'These are positive signs. Climate change can undermine the stable and predictable environment that underpins the growth and prosperity of all countries,' he said.

Attending the conference at Shangri-La Hotel over the weekend are security analysts and defence chiefs. Over the next two days, they will discuss issues ranging from nuclear challenges and progress in counter-terrorism to security tie-ups and intervention in fragile states.

In his 30-minute speech, Mr Lee began by surveying the developments in Asia's three major countries - China, India and Japan - to explain his optimism for the region.

He foresees it growing 'for many more years', chiefly because all three are taking the lead in bilateral and regional cooperation. China is actively building broad-based ties with the rest of the world, partly motivated by the need to reassure countries feeling threatened by its growth. With Asean, for instance, it is concluding a free trade agreement on generous terms, said Mr Lee.

Most Asian countries also see China's military build-up 'not as a threat to regional security, but as a specific response to the cross-strait situation'.

'They are also confident that the prevailing strategic balance, which owes much to the US presence, will not be upset any time soon,' he said.

As for Japan-China ties, the two are taking a 'pragmatic approach' to move forward despite their unreconciled views on World War II, said Mr Lee. India, while boosting its economic links with East and South-east Asia, does not see its partnership with the US as a way to counter-balance China, with which it holds joint military exercises.

As for Asean, member countries realise that if the grouping is disunited or passive, it will be marginalised and become irrelevant. Hence, the move to introduce a charter to strengthen it and define its long-term goals.

On China-US relations, he sees trade as the major bugbear. And if the frictions sour ties, everyone will be worse off, Mr Lee said, adding that Taiwan is the other flashpoint.

On the Middle East, he noted especially the situation in Iraq and Iran. The US cannot afford to quit Iraq in a way that is seen as a defeat. Otherwise 'its enemies will claim victory and jihadists everywhere will be emboldened'.

Mr Lee sees a nuclear Iran fundamentally changing the balance of power in the Middle East. And if attempts to stop it end up in military conflict, it 'will have incalculable consequences for the whole world'. Iran has to be engaged. 'If it is not part of the solution, it is part of the problem,' said Mr Lee.

Today Online 2 Jun 07
PM Lee waves red flag over green issues
Nazry Bahrawi

WITH stresses between China and the United States building up and Iran's spoiler role in the Middle East ever present, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong raised another security red flag: Climate change.

He told a high-powered security conference attended by US President George W Bush's point man for defence and a top official of the world's largest army: "This (climate change) is traditionally viewed as an environmental or economic issue, but it has serious security implications."

"In countries where the economic and political environment is already fragile, the stresses from climate change can cause social upheavals and civil strife.

"Between countries, competition for scarce resources and displacement of populations across borders can deepen tensions, and provoke conflict and wars," Mr Lee said in a speech to more than 250 defence and military officials at the 6th International Institute of Strategic Studies' Asia Security Conference at the Shangri-La Hotel on Friday.

Also known as the Shangri-La Dialogue, the annual international security forum is now in its sixth year.

While most countries agree that something needs to be done about climate change, they have yet to come up with a "viable overall strategy", Mr Lee said.

This is because "action on the environment will benefit everyone, but it is not free for anyone".

One unavoidable price that countries will have to pay is slower growth — something that many East Asian countries are not willing to pay. Mr Lee said: "More than in other regions, political legitimacy in most East Asian countries can be premised on continued high growth."

Still, any viable solution on climate change must have the support of Asian countries. "But they are understandably reluctant to constrain their growth and energy usage, when the current greenhouse gas problem is the result of past emissions by the developed countries, and their per capita emissions remain much lower than the developed countries."

To confront such difficult issues, Mr Lee calls for both developed and developing countries to begin serious discussions on climate change.

Apart from climate change, Mr Lee also cited two other issues – China-US relations and the Middle East – that can undermine Asia's progress. He said that the region's positive growth could be affected by the souring of US-China relations due to trade tensions and their differing positions on Taiwan. This, in turn, could force Asian countries to choose sides.

And while there have been concerns from the US and Japan about China's military build-up, Mr Lee said "most Asian countries assess the challenge from China to be more economic than military".

With US Defence Secretary Robert Gates and Lt-General Zhang Qisheng, the Chinese People's Liberation Army deputy chief of the general staff, rubbing shoulders at the conference, participants can expect to hear more on these issues over the next two days.

Mr Gates is expected to use his speech on Saturday to assure the region that the United States intends to remain an influence in Asia. The presence of Lt-Gen Zhang, the highest-ranking Chinese officer to attend the forum, is seen as a sign that China increasingly values dialogue as a way of assuaging concerns over its rising military strength.

On the Middle East, Prime Minister Lee singled out Iran as "one critical uncertainty in the Middle East". "If there is no resolution of the nuclear issue, and Tehran acquires sufficient fissile material to become a nuclear power or even a threshold power, the balance of power and deterrence in the Middle East will be fundamentally change.

"On the other hand, if steps taken to resolve the Iran nuclear issue end up in military conflict, that too will have incalculable consequences for the whole world. … Like it or not, Iran has to be engaged."

Despite the many challenges, Mr Lee believes that "an Asian renaissance" is still possible. "Virtually all Asian countries recognise that it would be counter-productive to resist change altogether, or try to maintain the status quo," Mr Lee said.
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