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  Yahoo News 2 Apr 07
Climate change set to worsen health burden: draft UN report

PlanetArk 2 Apr 07
Global Warming Could Bring Hunger, Melt Himalayas
Story by Alister Doyle, Environment Correspondent

PlanetArk 2 Apr 07
Impacts of Climate Change

Yahoo News 1 Apr 07
Climate change could carry huge, hidden costs: UN report
by Richard Ingham

Climate change will inflict steadily rising costs that could become astronomical if greenhouse gas emissions rise unabated and countries delay preparations for the likely impacts, UN experts will say next week.

Their vast report will shed light on the costs from heightened water stress, tropical storms, floods, droughts, species loss and human disease this century as a result of global warming.

"(The) vulnerabilities could be considerable," warns the 1,400-page document on the impact of climate change. The report is due to be issued in Brussels on Friday by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), gathering top specialists in climate science, economics, biology and other disciplines under the UN banner.

They will meet for four days to finalise the document, marking the second out of three volumes in the IPCC's massive update of knowledge about climate change. It is the first such review since 2001.

The bill for climate change will depend on atmospheric levels of greenhouse gas, which is principally caused by burning fossil fuels, and on the effort to adapt to its effects, according to a draft seen by AFP.

Experts disagree widely as to the ultimate dollar figure, as the calculation has many variables. The equation changes, for instance, if one estimates the impact over the short or the long term, factors in the cost of biodiversity loss or not or attributes damage from extreme weather events to man-made global warming or to a natural phenomenon.

"Depending on the assumptions used... total economic impacts are typically estimated to be in the range of a few percent of global product for a few degrees (Celsius) of warming," it says.

But there are also many unknowns, it adds.

Climate change can have a knock-on effect in many areas and there are also poorly-understood triggers that scientists fear could dramatically accelerate the warming.

To give an indication, estimates range from a benefit of three dollars per tonne of CO2 emitted into the atmosphere -- mainly because warming would open up frozen lands in the northern hemisphere to agriculture -- to a cost of more than 400 dollars per tonne.

In 2005, around 7.9 billion tonnes of CO2, the principal greenhouse gas, were released into the atmosphere, according to the Global Carbon Project, a research organisation.

In the first volume of its report, issued in February, the IPCC predicted a temperature rise in the likely range of 1.8-4.0 C (3.2-7.2 F) by the end of the century.

The upcoming report makes these points:

-- As the temperature rises, so will the "social costs," or the OVERALL ECONOMIC BILL caused by every tonne of CO2. "It is virtually certain the real social cost of carbon and other greenhouse gases will rise over time; it is very likely that the rate of increase will be two to four percent per year," says the report. Depending on the scenario of CO2 concentrations, "by 2080, it is likely that 1.1 to 3.2 billion people will be experiencing water scarcity; 200 to 600 million hunger; two to seven million more per year, coastal flooding."

-- A modest rise could open up huge areas of land for AGRICULTURE in North America, Northern Europe and Russia. But sub-Saharan Africa would lose farmland because of less rainfall while yields for wheat in South Asia and for rain-fed rice production in China would also be badly hit. A very high increase (5.5 C, or 9.9 F) would widely damage crop and livestock production. Global cereal prices would rise by 30 percent, according to one study.

-- The biggest potential costs will come from EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS, such as storms, droughts and floods, which are "very likely" -- a 90 percent certitude -- to become more powerful and possibly more frequent too. Their impact will be amplified by a rise in the world's population, which is projected to reach between 8.7 and 9.3 billion by 2030, of which two billion could be slum dwellers whose homes are typically at risk from inundation and landslide. "Costs of major (weather) events can range from several percent of annual regional GDP" for large economies to "more than 25 percent in smaller areas that are affected by the events," says the report. It notes that Hurricane Katrina, which devastated New Orleans in 2005, inflicted total economic costs of more than 100 billion dollars. A British assessment in 2005 suggested that annual weather-related damages to land use and property in Britain could increase by three to nine times by the 2080s.

-- A big rise in SEA LEVELS would be very costly, as it would swamp low-lying coastal regions and deltas and threaten small island states, but is considered a low probability. A rise of one metre (3.25 feet) would cost 944 billion dollars, almost half of it in Asia, according to the study. In February, the IPCC said the global sea level would rise by between 18 and 59 centimetres (7.2 and 23.2 inches), but could be boosted if icesheets melt faster.

-- REDUCING carbon emissions would help to brake the warming, and PREPARING for the effects will reduce the costs. For instance, if sea levels rose by 65 cms (26 inches), an exceptional tide would cause damage of 5.2 billion dollars in China's booming Pearl River delta; flood defences and other preparations, though, would cost only 400 million -- a saving of 4.8 billion dollars.

Up to the middle of the century, a mix of mitigation and adaptation will be effective, "but even a combination of aggressive mitigation and significant investment in adaptive capacity could be overwhelmed by the end of the century."

PlanetArk 2 Apr 07
Global Warming Could Bring Hunger, Melt Himalayas
Story by Alister Doyle, Environment Correspondent

OSLO - Global warming could cause more hunger in Africa and melt most Himalayan glaciers by the 2030s, according to a draft UN report due on Friday which also warns that the poorest nations are likely to suffer most.

The UN climate panel, giving the most authoritative study on the regional impact of climate change since 2001, also predicts more heatwaves in countries such as the United States, and damage to coral including Australia's Great Barrier Reef.

"We are talking about a potentially catastrophic set of developments," Achim Steiner, the head of the UN Environment Programme, said of the likely impact of rising temperatures, widely blamed on greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels.

"Even a half metre (20 inch) rise in sea levels would have catastrophic effects in Bangladesh and some island states," he told Reuters.

Scientists and officials from more than 100 countries meet in Belgium from Monday to review and approve a 21-page summary for policymakers in the report amid disputes on some findings, including on how far rising temperatures may contribute to spreading disease.

Among the gloomy forecasts, the report predicts that glaciers in the Himalayas, the world's highest mountain range, will melt away, affecting hundreds of millions of people.

"If current warming rates are maintained, Himalayan glaciers could decay at very rapid rates, shrinking from the present 500,000 square kilometres to 100,000 square kilometres by 2030s," according to a draft technical summary. And disruptions are likely to be felt hardest in poor nations, such as sub-Saharan Africa and Asia where millions more could go hungry because of damage to farming and water supplies.

BENEFITS

Still, some nations will see some benefits, according to the draft by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) which draws on work by 2,500 scientists.

Global farm potential might increase with a rise of 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 Fahrenheit) in temperatures, before sinking worldwide, it says. Crops might grow better in nations far from the tropics such as Canada, Russia, New Zealand or Scandinavia.

But warming will hit rich nations in other ways. The Mediterranean region might become arid. In the United States, rising seas and storm surges could "severely affect transportation along the Gulf, Atlantic and Northern coasts", it says.

The United Nations reckons the report, together with one in February that concluded it was more than 90 percent likely that recent warming had a predominantly human cause, will add pressure on governments to do more to head off damaging change.

"We've passed the tipping point," Steiner said, adding that the public, governments and businesses seemed convinced that global warming was a major threat and not some vague theory about which scientists disagreed.

"It's no longer about whether (climate change) is happening but about how we deal with it," he said.

Even so, talks on a global treaty to extend the Kyoto Protocol on restricting greenhouse gases after 2012 are stalled. Of the world's top emitters -- the United States, China, Russia and India -- only Russia is bound by caps under Kyoto.

Talks in Brussels are likely to last long and late, according to James McCarthy, professor of biological oceanography at Harvard University who was co-chair the last time the IPCC made a similar report in 2001. He predicted disagreements would be overcome.

"I think it would be very unlikely that final agreement would not be reached in Brussels," he said. "It would be unprecedented."

PlanetArk 2 Apr 07
Impacts of Climate Change

Following are impacts of global warming outlined in a draft UN climate report due to be released in Brussels on April 6. The draft, to be discussed by scientists and government experts in the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, is looking at the regional effects of warming:

AFRICA
-- Reductions in the area suitable for agriculture, and in length of growing seasons and yield potential, are likely to lead to increased risk of hunger.
-- An increase of 5-8 percent (60-90 million hectares) of arid and semi-arid land in Africa is projected by the 2080s under various climate change scenarios.
-- Current stress on water in many areas of Africa is likely to increase, with floods and droughts.
-- Any changes in the productivity of large lakes are likely to affect local food supplies.
-- Ecosystems in Africa are likely to experience dramatic changes with some species facing possible extinctions.
-- Major delta regions with large populations, such as the Nile and Niger rivers, are threatened by sea level rises.

EUROPE
-- The percentage of river basin areas with severe water stress is expected to increase from 19 percent to 34-36 percent by the 2070s.
-- Millions of people are likely to live in watersheds with shortages in western Europe.
-- Under scenarios of a fast rise in global temperatures, an extra 2.5 million people a year will be affected by coastal flooding by the 2080s.
-- By the 2070s, hydropower potential for Europe is expected to decline overall by 6 percent, ranging from a 20-50 percent decrease in the Mediterranean region to a 15-30 percent increase in Northern and Eastern Europe.
-- A large percentage of European flora could become vulnerable, endangered, critically endangered or extinct under a range of scenarios.
-- By 2050, crops are expected to show a northward expansion. In northern Europe, wheat yields may gain by 8 to 25 percent by 2050. But in the south, yields may range from a fall of 8 percent to a gain of 22 percent by 2050.
-- Forested area is likely to increase in the north and decrease in the south, with a redistribution of species. Forest fire risk is virtually certain to increase greatly in southern Europe.
-- Small alpine glaciers will disappear, while larger glaciers will suffer a volume reduction of between 30 to 70 percent by 2050.
-- Tourism to the Mediterranean might fall in summer and increase in spring and autumn.
-- A rapid shutdown of the Gulf Stream bringing warm waters northwards across the Atlantic to Europe -- viewed as a low probability -- could have severe impacts such as cutting crop production, more cold-related deaths, and a shift in populations south.

NORTH AMERICA
-- Population growth, rising property values and continued investment increase the vulnerability of coastal regions. Any rise in destructiveness of coastal storms is very likely to bring "dramatic increases" in losses from severe weather and storm surges.
-- Sea level rises and tidal surges and flooding have the "potential to severely affect transportation and infrastructure along the Gulf, Atlantic and northern coasts."
-- Severe heatwaves are likely to worsen over parts of the United States and Canada.
-- Ozone related deaths are projected to increase by 4.5 percent from the 1990s to the 2050s.
-- Projected warming in the western mountains is likely to cause large decreases in snowpack, earlier snowmelt, more winter rains by mid-century.
-- Climate change is likely to increase forest production. But by the second half of the century, the dominant impacts will be disruptions from pests and fires. Forest areas burnt each summer in Canada could rise by between 74 and 118 percent by 2100 compared to now.
-- Vulnerability to climate change is likely to be concentrated in specific groups and regions, such as indigenous peoples and the poor and elderly in cities.

LATIN AMERICA
-- Glaciers in the tropical Andes are very likely to disappear over the next 15 years, reducing water availability and hydropower generation in Bolivia, Peru, Colombia and Ecuador.
-- Any decline in rainfall in semi-arid regions of Argentina, Brazil and Chile is likely to lead to severe water shortages.
-- By the 2020s, between 7 and 77 million people are likely to suffer from a lack of adequate water supplies.
-- A rise in sea level, weather and climatic variability are very likely to have impacts on low-lying areas, buildings and tourism, mangroves, coral reefs and the location of fish stocks off Peru and Chile.
-- Temperature increases of 2 Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) and decreases in soil water would turn eastern parts of Amazonia to savannah from tropical forest. In turn, that could threaten many species.
-- The frequency and intensity of hurricanesin the Caribbean might increase.
-- Rice yields are expected to fall after 2020, but soybean yields in south eastern parts of South America may increase.

POLAR REGIONS
-- The extent of annually averaged Arctic sea-ice is projected to contract by between 22 to 33 percent by 2100. In Antarctica, projections range from a slight increase to an almost complete loss of summer sea ice.
-- There will be "important reductions" in the thickness and extent of Arctic glaciers and ice caps, and the Greenland ice sheet this century. Losses from glaciers on the Antarctic peninsula will continue, along with a thinning in part of the West Antarctic ice sheet. The melt will raise sea levels.
-- Northern hemisphere permafrost is projected to decrease by 20-35 percent by 2050.
-- In one scenario of rapid change, 10 percent of Arctic tundra will be replaced by forest by 2100 and 15-25 percent of polar desert will be replaced by tundra.
-- In both polar regions, climate change will mean decreases in habitat for migratory birds and mammals, with "major implications" for predators such as seals and polar bears.
-- Reductions in lake and river ice cover are expected in both polar regions. Warming will affect distribution of fish stocks.
-- In Siberia and North America, there may be an increase in agriculture and forestry as the limits for both shift northwards by several hundred km (miles) by 2050. Major forest fires and outbreaks of tree-killing insect pests are likely to increase.
-- Warming will cut the number of human deaths in winter from cold. But more pests and diseases in wildlife, such as tick-borne encephalitis, could affect humans.
-- More frequent and severe floods, erosion, droughts, and destruction of permafrost "threaten community, public health, and industrial infrastructure and water supply".
-- "The resilience of indigenous populations is being severely challenged," because of climate changes, along with economic and social shifts.

SMALL ISLAND STATES
-- "Sea level rise and increased sea water temperature are projected to accelerate beach erosion, and cause degradation of natural coastal defences such as mangroves and coral reefs".
-- That could curb tourism. Studies in some islands indicate that up to 80 percent of tourists would be unwilling to return for the same price if corals and beaches were damaged.
-- Ports, as well as roads and international airports which are also often by the coast, are likely to be at risk from rising seas.
-- Reductions in rainfall would have a big impact in cutting the size of underground freshwater stocks in islands such as Tarawa Atoll, Kiribati. Some small islands states are investing in desalination to offset projected water shortages.
-- Rising temperatures and decreasing water availability is likely to increase diarrhoea and other infectious diseases in some small island states.
-- Without measures to adapt to change, agriculture economic losses are likely to reach between 2 and 18 percent of 2002 gross domestic product by 2050 for both higher islands such as Fiji and low-lying islands such as Kiribati.
-- New microbes, fungi, plants and animals are already causing changes to wildlife on sub-Antarctic islands.
-- Costs of adapting to change may be high, and options limited.

AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND
-- Many ecosystems are likely to be altered by 2020. Among the most vulnerable are the Great Barrier Reef, south-western Australia, Kakadu wetlands, rainforests and mountain areas.
-- Water security problems are very likely to increase by 2030 in southern and eastern Australia, and parts of eastern New Zealand away from major rivers. In Australia, there could be a 10-25 percent reduction in river flow in the Murray-Darling basin by 2050.
-- Development of coastal regions could lead to property coming under threat from rising sea levels. By 2050 there is likely to be loss of high-value land, faster road deterioration and degraded beaches.
-- In southeast Australia, the frequency of of days when bush fires threaten is likely to rise by between 4 and 25 percent by 2020.
-- Increased temperatures and demographic changes are likely to increase peak energy demand in summer which could lead to black-outs.
-- Farm production is likely to decline over much of southern and eastern Australia and parts of eastern New Zealand due to increased drought and fire. If enough water is available, longer growing seasons and less risk of frost are likely to aid farming in much of New Zealand and parts of southern Australia.
-- In south and west New Zealand, growth rates of economically important plantation crops are likely to increase.
-- The elderly will be at risk from heatwaves, with an extra 3,200-5,200 deaths on average per year by 2050.

Yahoo News 2 Apr 07
Climate change set to worsen health burden: draft UN report

BRUSSELS (AFP) - Malaria, cholera, malnutrition, heatstroke and pollen allergies are just a few of the health problems set to worsen because of global warming, according to a report prepared by UN climate experts meeting here.

Climate change has already extended the range of mosquitoes and ticks, helped spread diarrhoeal disease, boosted the length and location of pollen seasons and pumped up the intensity of dangerous heatwaves, says the report.

In the coming decades, such problems are likely to amplify and for many people, hunger and poor nutrition will be added to the mix, it says.

"Adverse health impacts will be greatest in low-income countries," says the report. "Those at greater risk include, in all countries, the urban poor, the elderly and children, traditional societies, subsistence farmers and coastal population."

The 1,400-page document is due to be issued on Friday by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the top UN scientific authority on global warming and its impacts. It is part of the fourth assessment report by the IPCC since it was founded in 1988 to inform policymakers about man-made climate change. The previous report was in 2001.

A final draft of the report points out that human health can be affected in subtle and sometimes poorly perceptible ways by climate change. For instance, if food production is hit by drought or flooding, that in turn affects nutrition -- or may prompt a rural exodus that boosts the population of shanty towns, where overcrowding and communicable disease can be rife.

A study of the heatwave that struck Western Europe in 2003 found that nearly a third of Switzerland's excess mortality came from ground-level ozone -- the pollution caused by a reaction between sunlight and traffic exhausts, which can be dangerous for people with respiratory or cardiac problems.

In some cases, says the report, climate change may be positive. In northerly latitudes, winters will become shorter and milder, easing the risk to poor and elderly people of cold waves.

But overall, the outcome will be "overwhelmingly negative", hitting most of all poor tropical countries with water stress, poor sanitation and shaky medical infrastructure.

One study cited in the report projects that the number of people at risk of hunger in the Sahel country of Mali will roughly double, from 34 percent today to between 64-72 percent
in the 2050s, if nothing is done to help the population adapt to the threat.

The report puts the spotlight on populations in these areas:

-- COASTAL AND LOW-LYING AREAS: A quarter of the world's six billion people lives within 100 kilometres (62 miles) distance and 100 metres (325 feet) elevation of the coastline. Depending on the levels of carbon pollution in the atmosphere, these areas are at risk from rising sea levels, more powerful storms, coastal flooding, damage to fisheries and saltwater intrusion into freshwater resources. According to one estimate, nearly five percent of the population of Bangladesh could face inundation if temperatures rise 2 C (3.8 F), the sea level increases 30 centimetres (12 inches) and monsoon rainfall rises 18 percent, which are middle-of-the-range estimates. This could increase to 57 percent of the population in a computer model of a high-range 4 C (7.2 F) temperature increase, a 100-cm (40-inch) rise in sea level and a 33 percent increase in monsoon precipitation.

-- MOUNTAIN REGIONS: Glaciers are in rapid retreat in the Himalayas, Greenland, the European Alps, the Andes and East Africa, causing for some populations the future risk of water insecurity. Nearly a quarter of China's population, for instance, lives in western regions where glacial melt provides the main water source in the dry season. A warmer climate will enable mosquitoes to live at altitudes that previously were too cold, while more extreme rainfall will boost the number of floods and landslides.

-- POLAR REGIONS: Indigenous peoples who comprise roughly 10 percent of the circumpolar population are "particularly vulnerable" to climate change, both in threats to their habitat and their lifestyle. Warmer temperatures will increase the range of disease-bearing wildlife and badly affect traditional nutrition because of changes in animal migration and distribution.
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