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14 Mar 07 Warming May Cause Food, Water Shortages - UN Report Story by Alister Doyle, Environment Correspondent Yahoo News 11 Mar 07 Climate report warns of drought, disease By Seth Borenstein, AP Science Writer WASHINGTON - The harmful effects of global warming on daily life are already showing up, and within a couple of decades hundreds of millions of people won't have enough water, top scientists will say next month at a meeting in Belgium. At the same time, tens of millions of others will be flooded out of their homes each year as the Earth reels from rising temperatures and sea levels, according to portions of a draft of an international scientific report obtained by The Associated Press. Tropical diseases like malaria will spread. By 2050, polar bears will mostly be found in zoos, their habitats gone. Pests like fire ants will thrive. For a time, food will be plentiful because of the longer growing season in northern regions. But by 2080, hundreds of millions of people could face starvation, according to the report, which is still being revised. The draft document by the authoritative Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change focuses on global warming's effects and is the second in a series of four being issued this year. Written and reviewed by more than 1,000 scientists from dozens of countries, it still must be edited by government officials. But some scientists said the overall message is not likely to change when it's issued in early April in Brussels, the same city where European Union leaders agreed this past week to drastically cut greenhouse gas emissions by 2020. Their plan will be presented to President Bush and other world leaders at a summit in June. The report offers some hope if nations slow and then reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, but it notes that what's happening now isn't encouraging. "Changes in climate are now affecting physical and biological systems on every continent," the report says, in marked contrast to a 2001 report by the same international group that said the effects of global warming were coming. But that report only mentioned scattered regional effects. "Things are happening and happening faster than we expected," said Patricia Romero Lankao of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., one of the many co-authors of the new report. The draft document says scientists are highly confident that many current problems — change in species' habits and habitats, more acidified oceans, loss of wetlands, bleaching of coral reefs, and increases in allergy-inducing pollen — can be blamed on global warming. For example, the report says North America "has already experienced substantial ecosystem, social and cultural disruption from recent climate extremes," such as hurricanes and wildfires. But the present is nothing compared to the future. Global warming soon will "affect everyone's life ... it's the poor sectors that will be most affected," Romero Lankao said. And co-author Terry Root of Stanford University said: "We truly are standing at the edge of mass extinction" of species. The report included these likely results of global warming: _Hundreds of millions of Africans and tens of millions of Latin Americans who now have water will be short of it in less than 20 years. By 2050, more than 1 billion people in Asia could face water shortages. By 2080, water shortages could threaten 1.1 billion to 3.2 billion people, depending on the level of greenhouse gases that cars and industry spew into the air. _Death rates for the world's poor from global warming-related illnesses, such as malnutrition and diarrhea, will rise by 2030. Malaria and dengue fever, as well as illnesses from eating contaminated shellfish, are likely to grow. _Europe's small glaciers will disappear with many of the continent's large glaciers shrinking dramatically by 2050. And half of Europe's plant species could be vulnerable, endangered or extinct by 2100. _By 2080, between 200 million and 600 million people could be hungry because of global warming's effects. _About 100 million people each year could be flooded by 2080 by rising seas. _Smog in U.S. cities will worsen and "ozone-related deaths from climate (will) increase by approximately 4.5 percent for the mid-2050s, compared with 1990s levels," turning a small health risk into a substantial one. _Polar bears in the wild and other animals will be pushed to extinction. _At first, more food will be grown. For example, soybean and rice yields in Latin America will increase starting in a couple of years. Areas outside the tropics, especially the northern latitudes, will see longer growing seasons and healthier forests. Looking at different impacts on ecosystems, industry and regions, the report sees the most positive benefits in forestry and some improved agriculture and transportation in polar regions. The biggest damage is likely to come in ocean and coastal ecosystems, water resources and coastal settlements. The hardest-hit continents are likely to be Africa and Asia, with major harm also coming to small islands and some aspects of ecosystems near the poles. North America, Europe and Australia are predicted to suffer the fewest of the harmful effects. "In most parts of the world and most segments of populations, lifestyles are likely to change as a result of climate change," the draft report said. "Net valuations of benefits vs. costs will vary, but they are more likely to be negative if climate change is substantial and rapid, rather than if it is moderate and gradual." This report — considered by some scientists the "emotional heart" of climate change research — focuses on how global warming alters the planet and life here, as opposed to the more science- focused report by the same group last month. "This is the story. This is the whole play. This is how it's going to affect people. The science is one thing. This is how it affects me, you and the person next door," said University of Victoria climate scientist Andrew Weaver. Many — not all — of those effects can be prevented, the report says, if within a generation the world slows down its emissions of carbon dioxide and if the level of greenhouse gases sticking around in the atmosphere stabilizes. If that's the case, the report says "most major impacts on human welfare would be avoided; but some major impacts on ecosystems are likely to occur." The United Nations-organized network of 2,000 scientists was established in 1988 to give regular assessments of the Earth's environment. The document issued last month in Paris concluded that scientists are 90 percent certain that people are the cause of global warming and that warming will continue for centuries. Yahoo News 9 Mar 07 Climate change pushes diseases north: expert By Jeremy Clarke NAIROBI (Reuters) - Global warming is pushing northwards diseases more commonly found in developing countries, posing a risk to the financial and physical health of rich nations, the head of a livestock herders' charity said. Steve Sloan, chief executive of GALVmed, said on Friday insect-borne diseases were increasingly moving north, such as the viral infection bluetongue that has hit cattle and sheep in the Netherlands, Belgium, France and Germany. If Kenya's Rift Valley Fever also reached Europe, the impact would be immense, he said. "These 'African' diseases have become global issues because of climate change," Sloan told Reuters in an interview. "Following the bluetongue outbreak in Germany, some meat markets in the country saw an annual drop of up to a third," he said. "Wait until something like Rift Valley Fever arrives, that brings death with it as well." Bluetongue, which is not harmful to humans, has been present for several years in Spain and Italy. The disease, transmitted by midges, was first discovered in South Africa and has been spreading north since the late 1990s. Experts say that is due to global warming. "There is a very real threat that diseases like River Valley Fever will follow bluetongue into Europe," Brian Perry, senior scientist at the International Livestock Research Institute, told Reuters. "Climate change has a definite impact in the establishment of these diseases." Within a month of bluetongue being detected in the southern Netherlands last year, the number of Dutch farms affected by it had doubled to more than 400, despite measures to stop the spread of the virus. "These are economic diseases that should frighten the hell out of Europe's meat business, not to mention the threat they pose to human lives," Sloan said. "Climate change is bringing them to Europe." GALVmed aims to reduce poverty of livestock keepers in developing countries by improving access to pharmaceuticals and vaccines. PlanetArk 14 Mar 07 Warming May Cause Food, Water Shortages - UN Report Story by Alister Doyle, Environment Correspondent NORWAY: March 14, 2007 OSLO - Global warming could cause severe food and water shortages for millions of people by 2100 and trigger a melt of polar ice that could keep ocean levels rising for centuries, a draft UN report shows. It said the poor were most at risk, for instance in sub-Saharan Africa and around deltas of major rivers in Asia. The survey by the world's top climate scientists, due for release in Brussels on April 6, said climate change widely blamed on human activities was already under way with impacts ranging from melting glaciers to earlier than normal plant growth in spring. "Many natural systems, on all continents and in some oceans, are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases," according to a copy seen by Reuters. The draft will have a final review by governments and experts. "Impacts are very likely to increase due to increased frequencies and intensities of extreme weather impacts," the draft said. It said there were still chances to prevent the most damaging impacts if governments acted. It pointed to threats such as a melting of Greenland and west Antarctic ice sheets that could cause sea levels to rise, extinctions of species from the Amazon to the Arctic or more severe heat waves in US cities. "Climate change increases the number of people at risk of hunger marginally," it said, compared to projected declines caused by economic growth. But a large rise in temperatures could put up to 120 million people at risk of hunger. MELTING GLACIERS A melting of glaciers, such as in the Himalayas, could cut summer and autumn flows in regions where more than a billion people live. Farmers near the equator were likely to suffer falling crop yields even with small temperature rises, while farmers living nearer the poles might see some immediate benefits. "Global agricultural production potential is likely to increase with increases in global average temperature up to about 3 Celsius (5.4 F), but above this is very likely to decrease," the draft said. Hundreds of millions of people would suffer from water scarcity even with a small rise in temperatures. Between 1.1 to 3.2 billion might suffer if temperatures jumped by more than 4 Celsius (7.2F), at the higher end of forecasts. Water scarcity could damage semi-arid regions such as the Mediterranean basin, the western United States, southern Africa, northeastern Brazil, southern and eastern Australia. The draft, detailing likely impacts and ways to adapt to climate change, is the second of four studies this year based on the work of 2,500 climate experts in the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The first report concluded there was at least 90 percent certainty that human activities, led by burning fossil fuels, were stoking warming. The reports will guide governments trying to combat climate change. The draft report said hundreds of millions of people would be vulnerable to rising sea levels that could swamp Pacific islands, coasts and cities from New York to Shanghai. It said there was "medium confidence" that a rise in temperatures of more than 1 to 2 Celsius (1.8-3.6F) might melt parts of Greenland and west Antarctica, "causing sea level rise of 4 to 6 metres (13-20 ft) over centuries to millennia." And it said that about 20-30 percent of species could be at risk of extinction with a moderate temperature rise. links Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change website Related articles on Global issues: climate change |
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