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  PlanetArk 5 Feb 07
Sea May Swallow Maldives if Global Warming unchecked
by Simon Gardner

COLOMBO - His Indian Ocean island cluster is a magnet for Hollywood stars such as Tom Cruise, but the Maldives may disappear within generations unless world leaders urgently combat climate change, President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom warns.

With a United Nations climate panel forecasting world sea levels likely to rise by up to 59 cm (23.2 inches) by 2100 due to global warming, the risks to the low-lying island chain dotted across 500 miles (800 km) off the toe of India are glaring.

"The average height of the Maldives is 1.5 metres above mean sea level. Therefore, if the rate of sea level rise per century is 59 cm, it would take a couple of centuries at the most to totally inundate the entire Maldives," an alarmed Gayoom told Reuters in an email interview.

"That of course will happen only if there is no concrete action to address the issue at a global stage," he added. "It is further evidence that our country is in peril, and that timely action is needed to ensure our future survival."

Renowned for its luxury resorts -- accommodation in pavilions on stilts over turquoise lagoons can run to over US$1,000 a night -- white sand beaches and world class snorkelling and scuba, tourism is the lynchpin of the Maldives' US$800 million economy.

"Our tourism industry will be affected for certain. The stretches of white sandy beaches are one of the main assets of our tourism industry," Gayoom said. "Climate change will lead to an increase in stormy weather and coral damage too. These are major concerns for the Maldives, which has a narrow-based economy."

Of the palm-fringed archipelago's 1,192 islands and coral reef atolls, 194 are inhabited -- and the beaches on 60 percent of those are already facing varying degrees of erosion, he added.

NATION IN PERIL

The experience of the nation's 300,000-strong Sunni Muslim population during the December 2004 tsunami serves as a cautionary tale.

While geography helped save the Maldives from the kind of scenes of death and destruction seen in hard-hit countries such as neighbouring Sri Lanka, authorities were forced to evacuate 13 islands completely and relocate their residents elsewhere.

The Maldives islands are effectively the peaks of underwater mountains -- many are only a few hundred metres across at most -- so, without a large landmass to crest on, the tsunami waves just washed over them at a height of around one metre rather than the towering waves seen in other countries.

"The main threats to our island nation's survival -- global warming and sea-level rise -- emanate from beyond our geographical borders," Gayoom said, adding that the chain was investing in coastal protection infrastructure. "We do not wish to become environmental refugees, and we will not leave the Maldives unless we are forced to."

Gayoom takes no comfort from the fact that the UN climate panel's forecast of sea level increase has narrowed from a bracket of 9-88 cm by the year 2100 to 18-59 cm, a reduction some experts see as encouraging.

"It indicates, on the contrary, that sea level rise is a clear and present danger," he said. "These figures clearly demonstrate the need to act urgently, as sea levels are expected to continue rising for many decades and centuries."

And his message to fellow world leaders? "My message is a simple one -- take global warming and climate change more seriously. Act now, before it becomes too late to save not only the low-lying islands but the entire planet."
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