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  Today Online 2 Feb 07
Early warning system to watch for threats out of the blue
Loh Chee Kong

Channel NewsAsia 1 Feb 07
New system to help S'pore detect potential threats, emerging trends
By May Wong

SINGAPORE: Singapore will soon have a new system which can help to identify potential threats like a terror attack or emerging trends that point to a crisis.

The Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning System (RAHS System) is developed by the National Security Coordination Centre under the Prime Minister's Office and several partners. It is believed to be the first of its kind in the world.

Threats such as a SARS outbreak could have been detected much earlier and could even have been avoided with the RAHS System. The system collects relevant data, organises it intelligently and helps various ministries or agencies to collaborate better with the information.

Professor David Snowden, Founder, Cognitive Edge, Consultant for RAHS System, said: "Let's take an example, somebody comes in one day--they've been gathering data for multiple ministries which have been collected for different reasons. Ministry of Health may be collecting data on SARS outbreaks or bird flu and at the same time, the Ministry of Defence may be looking for some indications of a bio-terrorist attack.

"The Singapore system will actually allow them to make connections between those different ministries, which would normally only ever be made eight years after an attack when people write a report on it in an academic textbook."

Over a two-day trial, about ten analysts from government agencies like the Health Ministry tested the prototype RAHS System. The trial showed how information on early warning systems can be shared and accessed easily.

And when RAHS System gets implemented by the end of this year, decision makers like ministers would be able to study the potential threats to Singapore on their computers.

Patrick Nathan, National Security Coordination Centre, Prime Minister's Office, said: "We're not just talking about terrorist events. We're talking about pandemics, worrying social trends, even major financial turning points. If it's picked up early enough, we would be able to pre-empt, prevent it. If it's picked up a little later, at least we could put in place the right mitigation consequence management recovery processes to reduce the impact of that strategic surprise."

The RAHS System will be unveiled at an international symposium next month. - CNA/so

Today Online 31 Jan 06
Early warning system to watch for threats out of the blue
Loh Chee Kong cheekong@mediacorp.com.sg

WELL before Sars became a full-fledged crisis, there were tell-tale signs that something serious was brewing, but the alarm bells did not ring.

Singapore, in those days, was fixated with the terrorist threat and was not really looking out for other dangers. Now it wants to make sure that it will not be caught by surprise again.

By the end of this year, it will roll out Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning (Rahs)--its upgraded warning system. Once the system is up and running, the Government hopes that it will be better prepared for seemingly unexpected events such as Sars.

Turning the clock back to 2003, Mr Patrick Nathan, deputy director of the National Security Coordination Centre (NSCC) said: "While we were so focused on terrorism, Sars hit us from out of the blue. We really don't want that to happen again. So if we pick up the weak signals early enough, it allows us to preempt and prevent."

Under the system, there will be a centralised computer network linking all the Government ministries and agencies together. Information will be shared and tracked extensively, with the authorities looking out for specific early-warning indicators in "functional areas" such as cyber and bio-chemical surveillance.

Scenarios would be generated and plans devised to tackle the threats. The benefits would stretch beyond security. Singapore would have a "networked Government" in which common data can be analysed by different agencies. And by getting the private sector on board, the system would also help the Government predict economic trends, he added.

A dedicated centre--including analysts from both the public and private sectors--will monitor the data. Key personnel from different agencies would also have access to Rahs, said Mr Nathan.

In the long run, he added, the system would be accessible to a wide section of civil servants and private companies, in order to achieve diverse perspectives.

Added Prof David Snowden, founder of Cognitive Edge, which developed the system: "People cannot make sense of different information from different agencies. People trained in old patterns will not see new ones." He added: "The Singapore system will allow (the different agencies) to make connections that would normally only be made eight years after an attack when people write a report on it in some academic textbook."
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