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  Today Online 23 Jan 07
We're cooking ourselves alive
Maryanne Maes

Today Online 22 Jan 07
Dawn of The Hot Age?
2007 could be hottest year ever, but not for long as temperatures are expected to soar even higher
Sheralyn Tay sheralyn@mediacorp.com.sg

JUST when you think the freakish weather has rained itself out, after a hot and sunny weekend, it's time to bring out the raincoats again--with the weatherman predicting thunderstorms for the first part of the week.

Have the skies gone mad? No, it's just a change in the air pressure over Siberia which--according to Associate Professor Dr David Higgitt from the National University of Singapore --"is driving surges of particularly violent rainstorms" towards Singapore.

The culprit? It's a toss up between global warming and the El Nino effect, the exact cause is too complicated to pinpoint, said Prof Higgett. But what is certain is, both phenomena will be shaping the world's weather in the year ahead, for better or--mostly--for worse.

While 2006 was the world's sixth warmest year on record, according to Climate Change Organisation director of Alliances and Operations, Mr Dan Lai, 2007 could be the worst yet.

"British climate scientists have said that the resurgent El Nino climate trend, combined with higher levels of greenhouse gases, could touch off a fresh round of ecological disasters and make 2007 the world's hottest year on record," Mr Lai said.

For Singaporeans, it means that when the wet weather finally clears, it could get very hot and very dry. Think 1997, the island's hottest year on record, when an extended dry bout caused water stocks to fall to two-thirds of total reservoir capacity.

Elsewhere, the new year has already seen ice-storms in California following a snow-less Christmas in New York, Australia's worst drought ever, and floods in Britain. Yesterday, Britons learnt from naturalist Sir David Attenborough that their country's murderous heatwaves of 2003 would constitute a normal summer by 2050, and might even seem cool by 2080--according to the findings of the most detailed climate projection ever undertaken.

This came just days after scientist Professor Stephen Hawking described climate change as a greater threat to the planet than terrorism, and scientists pushed the hand of the Doomsday Clock--a symbol of the risk of atomic cataclysm and of climate change--closer to midnight.

"We are learning how human activities and technologies are affecting climate systems in ways that may forever change life on Earth," said Prof Hawking.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's report, slated for release on Feb 2, is likely to underscore this fact. According to the New York Times, leaked drafts state that it is "more than 90 per cent likely" that global warming has been driven by the build-up of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases--a truism that has never been conclusively proven.

The economic impact of such climate change could be enormous--beside which the estimated US$50-million losses for Singapore from last year's haze would seem a pittance.

In October, former World Bank chief economist Nicholas Stern called for one per cent of global GDP to be spent immediately on tackling climate change--predicting that the failure to do so could shrink the world economy by 20 per cent by 2050.

Already, the economic backlash is sinking in with insurance companies in the US, which are--according to the latest issue of Newsweek --- doubling premiums, refusing to take new policies or even discontinuing existing ones for customers along the Eastern seaboard, including New York City.

The reason? The increase in "extreme weather events" that are racking up huge property damages. In the meantime, Singapore is gearing up just to deal with the next few months in the grip of El Nino, which is expected to dissipate by June.

Given the big strides made in the last 10 years towards self-sufficiency in water resources, a shortage like 1997's is unlikely should the dry spell catch hold.

But if the heavy rains unexpectedly drag on instead, agencies told Today they are prepared. The Land Transport Authority, for example, will pay greater attention to infrastructure such as slopes. Measures in flood-prone areas are already underway by the Public Utilities Board, such as $12.8m project to enlarge the canal at Tanglin Halt.

Yet even if climatic anomalies do not hit Singapore directly, Mr Lai warned: "One must not forget the potential of indirect effect of climate change to Singapore -- especially when this tiny red dot depends on the resources of many countries around the world."

Today Online 23 Jan 07
We're cooking ourselves alive
Maryanne Maes

TWO years ago, it would have seemed insane to have environmental disasters hog the headlines of major newspapers around the world.

Now, it's a common sight. "Dawn of the Hot Age?" (Jan 22) sums up the impending dangers the world is facing, now more than ever.

Two years ago, Singapore was alerted to the warning signs of climate change, especially with the threat of being overwhelmed by rising sea levels.

Two years on, Singaporeans remain nonchalant to how this would impact on their daily activities. Plastic bags are still being wasted, air-conditioning temperatures in shopping malls and offices are still reaching North Pole standards, and both the rich and pseudo-rich continue to buy more than two fuel-guzzling cars per household to uphold their social status.

As the article mentions, the recent signs of climate change couldn't get any starker.

And I wonder when developing nations will pause to think if their doctrine of "business as usual", in their relentless pursuit of economic growth, will truly serve their interests--or is it simply a case of the blind leading the blind?

Singapore has developed its expertise in maximising its water resources, and recently has introduced the Euro IV vehicle emission standards. But what of the need for other pressing shake-ups?

Since the Republic ratified the Kyoto Protocol last year, I have not seen any major effective national programs being spun off, nor any initiatives to rattle the current unsustainable business mindsets of our local companies in promoting corporate environmental responsibility.

Other countries are surging ahead with green funds and investment, while our local bankers respond wide-eyed when asked about it.

The freeze over the American Plains in the past two weeks has cost the citrus industry more than US$2 billion ($3.07 billion). Australia's wine and agricultural crops have withered in the drought, while the floods in Malaysia have caused vegetable prices to skyrocket.

Singaporeans depend on such imports for their daily needs.

Sir Nicholas Stern was kind and conservative in predicting that the world economy will shrink by 20 per cent by 2050. Looking at the chaos around us, the figure could increase manifold.

Many sceptics say doomsayers are overplaying the effects of climate change, but this is one global hot potato that every nation and individual must bravely deal with as best they can.

Climate change is not something that will only happen in the next generation. The change has already affected us now, one way or the other--and we must act, or there will be no place to call home in the very near future.

So Singaporeans, do recognise that you don't really need your air-conditioned room to be 5°C colder; that taking an extra plastic bag will cause a cascade of indirect adverse impacts; and that driving an SUV into which you dump gallons of fossil fuel will create environmental problems that you, and your children, will have to endure.

This is contributed by a reader.
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