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  The Star 21 Jan 07
Wild weather ahead
By Chin Mui Yoon

The Star 21 Jan 07
Signs of the times

The Star 21 Jan 07
Peril from the sea

The Star 21 Jun 07
Recipe for disaster

The Star 21 Jan 07
Rising temperature in Indian Ocean may have caused Johor floods
 By Royce Cheah

BANGI: The warming of the Indian Ocean in the past 20 to 30 years--brought about by global warming--could have played a part in the unusual weather which caused flooding in Johor and other parts of Malaysia.

Climate expert Associate Prof Dr Fredolin Tangang said the rising temperature of the Indian Ocean, brought about by a series of events starting with the melting of ice in Greenland, could have caused the unusual and adverse weather conditions in South-East Asia.

An oceanographer based at Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia's School of Environmental and Natural Resource Sciences, Dr Fredolin said the Indian Ocean was cooled by a natural phenomenon which oceanographers labelled the Great Ocean Conveyor Belt. The 'conveyor belt' allowed warm water from the Indian Ocean to flow to the Arctic waters near Greenland, where the heat was dispersed.

However, Dr Fredolin said melting ice caps in the Arctic region around Greenland due to global warming had caused the natural conveyor belt to slow down or even stop. "Research shows that there is significant melting of ice in Greenland due to global warming."

"As a result, the salinity of the sea water has decreased," he said in an interview. As the water mass would be lighter, it was not able to sink, thus disturbing the natural progression of the conveyor belt. "The conveyor belt would either be stopped or slowed down," he added.

He said the present rising temperatures in the Indian Ocean could be associated with a weaker or absent 'conveyor belt' while the area around Greenland would experience a drop in temperature.

"Cooling in the region near Greenland and warming in Indian Ocean is not a coincidence but a good indicator of a weaker or halted ocean conveyor belt," he said. He said if the cooling trend in the North Atlantic continued and grew bigger, Europe would eventually head for severe winter in the future.

"For the tropical regions, especially regions close to the Indian Ocean, more extreme and unusual weather occurrences and climate anomalies such as typhoons and cyclones will appear in the future," he said. He said he was currently studying recent climatic changes to explain what was happening to the country and would submit his report to the Government soon.

The Star 21 Jan 07
Wild weather ahead
By Chin Mui Yoon

These days the weather is no longer small talk but a hot topic. So what's happening? Weather and environmental experts offer answers which are hardly reassuring.

Fisherman Cheng Chin Hee, 79, doesn't know climatology. Having fished for 50 years in the sea off Tanjung Sepat, a coastal village south of Banting, n Selan he only knows the weather has changed.

"The winds have become forceful over the years, the waves unpredictable," he says, scratching his head. "We've come across many small, twister-like funnels out at sea. We used to be able to look at the clouds and waves and sense what weather is ahead before we set out to sea. Now, we can't. We don't know what's happening with the weather anymore."

Killer heat waves in soggy London; winter drought in northern China, barren ski slopes on the Alps, and North Americans sunbathing in a warm winter while Bangladeshis suffer freezing and flooding.

Ten years ago, local environmental calamities were blamed on God. Typhoons, tsunamis, floods and earthquakes happened 'somewhere else'. We Malaysians have always felt sheltered from global disasters in our little corner of the earth.

But on Dec 18 climate change--a term previously so foreign--became all too real. More than 100,000 Malaysians in Johor had to be evacuated after the state was inundated with the heaviest rainfall in a century.

"These days, my house in Kampung Baru feels like it's air-conditioned every night; it's so cold!" says Pastor Raymond Choong, 36, who runs an orphanage in Johor Baru.

"This is the worst flood we've experienced since settling down here in 1938," says Phun Jun Jee, 29, whose family owns the famous Kluang Railway Station coffee house in Kluang, Johor. "We hope this is not an annual occurrence but what on earth is happening to our weather?"

What indeed. Ask environmental experts for answers and they say: 'Global weather changes'-- which they ominously add can no longer be ignored.

"Nobody can make exact predictions but what we can expect is the increase of extreme weather affecting us," says Faizal Parish, an ecologist specialising in integrated environmental analysis and director of non-governmental organisation Global Environment Centre in Petaling Jaya, Selangor.

To underscore this point, even before the umbrellas can be put aside, comes the awful prediction of severe drought that will affect Kuala Lumpur and Selangor in late February.

Warmer waters

The floods in Johor and east Malaysia were primarily caused by an interaction between several natural phenomenon compounded by human factors.

Faizal explains, "The regional weather is governed by ocean circulation patterns. In the Pacific Ocean we have the El Nino and La Nina which warms and cools the ocean respectively, affecting rainfall.

"There are also the Indian Ocean Dipole, an ocean-atmosphere phenomenon; the North-East monsoon and a typhoon in the South China Sea. These natural phenomena interact, causing extreme weather like heavy rainfall.

"But another factor that is generally affecting weather worldwide is climate change. Although this is a long-term process over 50 or 100 years, we see clear and easily measurable changes now."

The models of predictions point to more variations, changes and extreme events like storm frequencies, intense rainfall and severe drought, which led to last year's big fires in Sumatra and trans-boundary areas.

"As our oceans become warmer, they generate additional moisture causing more evaporation, thus more rainfall. But we also expect drought from February to April, and from July to October."

Britain's Environment Agency Sustainable Development Unit paints a bleak picture. Its June 2001 report seemed prescient when it stated: "Major floods that have only happened before every 100 years on average, many now start to happen every 10 or 20 years. The flood season may become longer and there will be flooding in places where there has never been any before."

For now, the worst seems over. The Malaysian Meteorological Department (MMD)'s Central Forecast Office predicts that the rainfall for the coming weeks is unlikely to be as heavy as what had believe that is in the field of researchers and involves multi-disciplinary agencies.

But he does acknowledge: "Yes, last year the weather was more extreme. It was wetter and drier than usual. And yes, we broke the record for heaviest rainfall recorded in a day for Johor."

A lot of records generated before 1996 seem to have been surpassed in the last 10 years. Data gathered from 37 stations nationwide shows what appears to be an upward trend in minimum temperature rising. So, it means Malaysia IS getting warmer.?

For the record, in December 2005, Kota Baru had the highest total rainfall of 782mm over several days. One year later, it was Johor getting the brunt of wet weather: the Senai station recorded 128mm of rain in just one day.

The great unknown

Imagine the scenario in Johor repeating itself every few years, or worse, annually. The three predicted scenarios that will affect Malaysia are: increased severe rainfall, drought and rising sea levels, conditions Johoreans can miserably attest to.

The general approach to climate change is adaptation, which is to take steps to build resilience and minimise costs. Countries are working through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

The important Stern Review on The Economics of Climate Change prepared for the British Government, released last year and reported widely, draws a simple conclusion from evidence gathered: The benefits of strong and early action far outweigh the economic costs of not acting.

The risks of major disruptions to economic and social activity could "reach a scale similar to those associated with the great wars and the economic depression of the first half of the 20th century," warns the report.

"Climate change will affect the basic elements of life for people around the world" access to water, food production, health and the environment. Hundreds of millions of people could suffer hunger, water shortages and coastal flooding as the world warms.

"Using results from formal economic models, the Review estimates that if we don't act, the overall costs and risks of climate change will be equivalent to losing at least 5% of global GDP each year, possibly rising to 20%," the report stated.

It's worth noting that Alliance Research reported in a business daily that the recent floods in Johor alone caused economic losses estimated at RM2.4 bil, representing 0.45% of the country's 2006 nominal GDP.

Is Malaysia prepared to handle and adapt to climate changes? Do we have a national plan to tackle catastrophes that a rising sea level will bring given our long vulnerable coastlines? Do we have a risk assessment plan?

"Generally no," says Assoc Professor Dr Fredolin Tangang, an oceanography and climatology specialist with the Faculty of Science and Technology in Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM). "There have been many studies done on the overall global level, but we need to zoom in on localised areas in Malaysia and on each state and town," he says.

Says Global Environment Centre's Faizal: "We've known about this issue for years, but it always takes a national disaster before we take action, like the haze.

"Many countries have started a process of developing national adaptation plans and strategies. In Malaysia, we still don't have a precise model for a future climate scenario in Southeast Asia.

"As far as I am aware there has been no scenario testing done based on predictions on what's going to happen in the next 50 or 100 years, which is so vital in guiding planning for development."

The Netherlands, with its low-lying lands, dykes and canals, is taking climate adaptation very seriously, investing Euro1bil per km to protect its coastlines. China, too, is scrambling to implement a national policy after battling with eroding coastlines and salt tides for months each year.

Malaysia also has thousands of kilometres of coastlines. This needs to be factored into development planning. But the experts say they don't see this sort of long-term consideration even on the local level.

The Stern Review includes a key element: reducing deforestation. The loss of natural forests around the world contributes more to global emissions than the transport sector.

Yet, forest protection has not even reached national implementation. Local communities are still struggling to save playgrounds and green lungs from being bulldozed.

"Malaysia has been active in stimulating regional coordination on haze and firefighting," says Faizal. "But the focus is on how to put out the fires that cause the haze instead of a predictive and preventive approach.

"What's more, we have signs of homegrown problems like increasing fires and locally generated smoke and haze. There were significant peat fires in Selangor, Pahang and Sarawak.

"With so many factors affecting our climate, can our children still sit in Geography class and study predictable weather patterns when monsoon winds used to come a-calling at set times of the year" Faizal smiles quietly and shakes his head.

The MMD weatherman says, "We can only give weather forecasts based on available technology. Who can possibly predict accurately what the weather will bring?"

That surely is cold comfort to fisherman Cheng and others like him whose lives and livelihoods depend on their ability to read the weather.

The Stern Review was prepared in October 2006 by Sir Nicholas Stern, head of the United Kingdom?s Government Economics Service and Adviser to the Government on the economics of climate change and development. The full report can be viewed at http://www.hmtreasury.gov.uk(search keyword Stern Review).


The Star 21 Jan 07
Signs of the times

DATA compiled from national meteorological departments from around the world reveals a scary pattern of ancient climate records being broken in recent years by accelerating extreme weather conditions.

The Status of the Global Climate Statement by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) reported that virtually no corner of planet Earth was spared from extreme weather events in 2006.

2006 was the Earth's sixth warmest year, averaging 0.4°C above the 1961 to 1990 average, reports WMO, whose records date back to 1861.

Britain experienced its warmest year in 2006 based on the Central England Temperature, where records go back to 1659.

The Sahara Desert had rare heavy rainfall in February, which damaged 70% of food production and displaced 600,000 people.

New Yorkers experienced 18°C in January this year, compared to the usual 3°C.

Austria's Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics discovered that alpine temperatures were at their highest in 1,300 years.

Many ski resorts throughout Europe had to close their slopes due to the lack of snow. Spring flowers appeared on lower slopes in the dead of winter.

Barmer, a desert region in Rajasthan in western India more accustomed to drought than floods, experienced two years of rain in the space of just three days. Many people were marooned on top of sand dunes surrounded by water over 5m deep, reported AlertNet.

Thailand suffered severe flooding that engulfed entire villages and drowned 86 people in December. Six months later the same Thais will suffer chronic drought.

China's State Oceanic Administration reported that rising sea level has triggered a series of unprecedented disasters over the past three years. It is expected to rise by a further nine to 31mm in the next three to 10 years. Over 300km of coastline have already been eroded in south China?s Hainan province.

Chinese paramilitary guards had to go on snow sweeping duty at Tiananmen Square after Beijing experienced its first heavy snowfall on 30 December 2006. Climate experts expect the extreme conditions to continue, with typhoons, floods and droughts.

Of the six glaciers in the Venezuelan Andes recorded in 1972, only two remain and are likely to disappear within 10 years.

Aedes aegypti mosquitoes carrying dengue and yellow fever viruses, previously limited to an altitude 1,006m in the Andes, Columbia, are now found at 2,195m heights, reported the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

As bushfires and drought fed in part by climate change ravage Australia's southeast, heavy rains are bringing rare flooding to the country's desert interior.

The Star 21 Jan 07
Peril from the sea

IF the unexpected heavy rainfall in Johor heralds extreme weather changes, are we ready to cope with the worst case scenario? Can we, for example, expect--as depicted on our cover--Kuala Lumpur under water a la Kota Tinggi?

While that may be a tad too extreme, looking at the accelerating extreme climate and unpredictable weather patterns, well, anything is possible.

Conservative figures predict that global warming will increase sea levels from 8cm to 88cm across 100 years. A rise of 2cm to 4cm has been recorded for Malaysia over the last 50 years.

But that figure is accelerating in line with the rest of the world. Even in the worst case scenario, most of the peninsula's West Coast will be under water.

"The sea will not just rise vertically; it will also penetrate inland up the river course to affect our freshwater supply for irrigation and drinking water. Even an increase of 1m high water level in areas that are relatively flat, the salt water will extend 30km inland," explains Global Environment Centre director Faizal Parish.

He says that while there will be localised flooding if there is heavy rain, Kuala Lumpur is sited too far inland to be affected by the rising tide.

But our coastlines will be affected 100%, which, is 'potentially very severe'.

"Kuala Lumpur and the Klang Valley depend on the Batang Berjuntai water catchment area, which is about 8km downstream from the sea. If the seawater rises, we will have to abandon this water intake point for Klang Valley and Kuala Lumpur. It will have severe impact for domestic, industrial and agricultural needs," adds Faizal.

The Star 21 Jun 07
Recipe for disaster

HOW much of the floods in Johor can be attributed to global warming or human activity?

It is interesting to note that Singapore, too, recorded its heaviest rainfall since 1869 when 366mm of rain fell on Dec 19. It exceeded the average 284mm recorded for the entire December months in previous years. But there was only localised flooding, which subsided within hours.

Global Environment Centre director Faizal Parish offers this explanation for Johor's water woes: Over the last 30 years, coastal and tidal areas on the West Coast have progressively reclaimed from the sea what were formerly mangrove forests.

The reclaimed land was not done by filling the ground, but by building a bank or a bund through the mangrove forest to stop the tide coming in. When it rains, the water is drained out but only at low tide, which is only a few hours each day. Excessive rainfall will accumulate behind the bund.

Furthermore, the cutting or opening of hills will fill the rivers with silt. Many riverbeds in Johor have also risen, reducing their capacity to drain floodwaters.

When urban settlements are built on natural flood plains, there is nowhere for water to flow but into the houses built there.

Another type of drainage are feeders--some are natural streams in urban areas or are our basic concrete longkang. If these are blocked or partially blocked by rubbish or silt, floodwater will back up onto streets and into buildings.

Prof Dr Hamirdin Ithnin, hydrology and water resources specialist with the Geography Department of Universiti Malaya says the land topography is only a few metres above sea level so the unprecedented heavy rainfall easily flooded the land.

"It was very difficult for the water to subside after such heavy rainfall as the water catchments were overfilled," he says.

"But it is also true that the situation was compounded by manmade developments and settlements. Thus, we saw the backwash of water into the urban areas inland."
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