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  The Straits Times 18 Nov 06
Sinking feeling over vanishing fish
By Paul P.S. Teng

THE world's appetite for fish is relentless, but overfishing is decimating what used to be a limitless protein source.

Global catches have been declining or stagnating since 1988, and there is virtually no room for fishery expansion. Even in South-east Asia's rich waters, wild fish stocks are estimated at only 10 to 15 per cent that of a decade ago. Action is needed soon, or the situation will worsen.

Add pollution to these woes, and seafood could be wiped off the menu in just 40 years, scientists warned in a new study in the reputed journal Science this month.

Worryingly, fish being caught are smaller, highlighting a spectacular decimation of key target fish species such as the large predators.

Already, about 20 per cent of freshwater fish are extinct, threatened or endangered.

In major temperate water fisheries, the decline of mainstays such as cod and halibut has been rapid. In tropical waters, the decline has been more gradual.

Globally, per capita demand for fish products has gone up from 10.5kg per person a year to almost 16 kg over the last three decades.

The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) predicts that people will each be eating an average of 17.1kg of fish every year by 2020.

Fish-loving Singaporeans already consume even more - about 24kg of fresh fish per person a year. The Republic imports over 90 per cent of its fish, supplying some 6 per cent mainly from fish farming.

Nowhere to hide

THERE is no single explanation for this crisis, caused by increased demand, improved fishing technology and destruction of habitats. Humans have taken fish from nature for millennia.

But fishing - like any other industry based on natural resources - has changed.

Industrialised fishing started in the early 19th century with the use of trawlers. By World War II's end, freezer trawlers, radar and acoustic fish finders were featured.

Further automation took place in the 1950s and 1960s, with people believing that more boats would automatically lead to higher catches.

But now, the World Resources Institute, an international non-governmental organisation, has warned that fishing fleets are 40 per cent larger than the oceans can sustain.

Yet another contribution to overfishing is 'distant-water fishing'', made possible by fishing fleets which can be at sea for long periods. In 1998, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and the United States caught about 1.8 million tonnes of tuna valued at US$1.3 billion (S$2.1 billion), within the 200-mile Exclusive Economic Zone of the Pacific island countries.

Today's technology is so advanced that schools of fish simply have nowhere to hide. Industrial fishing fleets have become large, efficient floating factories, but they are also wasteful.

For example, 'by-catch'' - unwanted fish caught in nets which are often discarded - may be as high as 40 per cent of some harvests.

Unregulated, small-scale fisheries have spread too.

Underpinning the decline in fish stocks is a more insidious phenomenon: the types of fish caught have changed dramatically in the past decades.

Formerly unwanted species have become more common.

A phrase, 'fishing down the food web', has been coined by Professor Daniel Pauly of the Fisheries Centre at the University of British Columbia in Canada.

This means that improved technology has led to depleted numbers of larger predators at the top of the food chain - such as mackerel, tuna and sharks; and more fish from lower down the food chain are being harvested.

In Asia, the breeding grounds of many fish species have been destroyed due to human development of such fish habitats as mangroves, coral reefs and sea-grass beds.

Over 90 per cent of coral reefs in Cambodia, Singapore, Taiwan, Philippines, Vietnam, China and the Spratlys are considered threatened.

Not all gloomy

BUT the news is seemingly not all grim, as the world turns increasingly to fish farming, or aquaculture. This now accounts for over half of all fish eaten, and major developments in countries such as Norway, China and the Philippines have been successful in increasing supply and holding down the prices of important food fish such as salmon, carp and tilapia.

Aquaculture is expected to become the industry's mainstay in the next few decades. IFPRI has predicted that global food fish production will rise by 1.5 per cent annually through to 2020, with two-thirds of this growth coming from aquaculture.

Over 80 per cent of total aquaculture production currently comes from developing countries, with Asia accounting for 90 per cent of global harvests. In 2000, seven out of the 10 top producers were from Asia, with China alone producing more than 24 million tonnes - 2.2 times that from the rest of the world's major producers put together.

Intensive, market-oriented aquaculture industries led by the private sector are the most effective players.

However, small-scale aquaculture can also enhance food security, livelihood and incomes in poor communities, and is an important component of current development strategies in Asia.

Remarkable successes based on scientific research have been achieved, such as a 60 per cent increase in the productivity of the Norwegian salmon industry and, for tropical fish, an 80 per cent growth over six generations of tilapia. But even with aquaculture, fish will cost more and there may be less variety.

Since supply cannot keep up with demand, fish prices are on the rise. By 2020, they are projected to increase by about 15 per cent from 1997 figures.

Also, aquaculture production, averaging 11 per cent growth a year, comes with its own set of problems, such as its link to habitat destruction and biodiversity loss.

So, as more fish appear on people's plates, from aquaculture, what is the cost to the environment?

The writer, former deputy director- general of research at The WorldFish Centre - an international non-profit research organisation, is Dean of Graduate Programmes and Research at the National Institute of Education, Nanyang Technological University.
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