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  The Straits Times Forum 6 Sep 06
Liquefied natural gas is at best an interim measure
Letter from Low Ee Mien

 Straits Times Forum 1 Sep 06
Alternative fuels won't fully replace fossil ones

MR NG Weng Hoong's commentary, 'S'pore needs to rethink energy policy' (ST, Aug 26), suggested a switch to alternative energy, or reducing or at least maintaining our energy demand in order to reduce Singapore's reliance on fossil fuels for our energy supply.

There is consensus that fossil fuels - oil, natural gas and coal - will continue to be the dominant fuels that will meet the bulk of the world's energy needs. They are more economical than many alternative energy sources, and there are adequate reserves to meet global energy demand for at least the next 40 years (longer for coal).

The US Energy Information Administration has projected that fossil fuels will still account for some 86 per cent of total world energy demand in 2030.

Although renewable energy sources are becoming more economically competitive, their share of total demand is projected to increase by only one percentage point to 9 per cent in 2030.

In Singapore, about 80 per cent of our electricity today is generated from natural gas. This is the cleanest and most energy-efficient option, compared to oil or coal. We have limited renewable alternatives.

Due to our geography, we are unable to tap geothermal or hydro sources. Our wind speed and tidal differences are also not high enough for significant electricity generation.

Electricity from photovoltaic technology still costs more than three times the average Singapore electricity pool price. Besides, even if we covered most of the available rooftop space in Singapore with solar panels, we would be able to meet only about 3-4 per cent of Singapore's annual electricity consumption, using today's solar technology.

To meet the energy needs of a growing population and economy, we thus have little choice but to import more natural gas. The building of an LNG terminal will allow us to diversify our sources of gas supply and improve energy security.

At the same time, the Energy Market Authority will ensure that our electricity market stays open to alternative technologies as they arise and become viable for Singapore.

We agree with Mr Ng that we should look actively into energy conservation so that we keep demand growth down. The Building and Construction Authority encourages the construction of energy-efficient buildings, by requiring air-conditioned buildings to comply with the Envelope Thermal Transfer Value. It also awards the Green Mark label to buildings which use energy and water efficiently.

The National Environment Agency has partnered the Singapore Environment Council to launch an Energy Labelling Scheme to educate consumers on efficient air-conditioners and refrigerators.

In addition, the Energy Efficiency Improvement Assistance Scheme helps companies to engage specialists to study their energy consumption and recommend measures to save energy.

Also, domestic consumers are alerted through their utility bills if their electricity consumption exceeds the national average.

Through such programmes, we hope that Singapore households and companies will do more to conserve energy.

Choo Wai Chan (Mrs)
Director Corporate Communications
Energy Market Authority

The Straits Times Forum 6 Sep 06
Liquefied natural gas is at best an interim measure
Letter from Low Ee Mien

I REFER to Ms Choo Wai Chan's letter, 'Alternative fuels won't fully replace fossil ones' (ST, Sept 1).

Complementing PNG (piped natural gas) with LNG (liquefied natural gas) is not that much of a diversification.

It is the path of least resistance since the existing power plants do not need to be replaced.

It is not a diversification because it is the same fossil fuel, just more expensive, due to the need to freeze it before shipping it and also having to re-gasify it before it can be used. The cost of the LNG infrastructure - terminal and tankers - is in the billion-dollar range, and guess who foots the bill eventually?

Besides, we still have to contend with resource depletion.

With LNG, we may 'run away' from local resource depletion in Malaysia and Indonesia but nobody can run away from global depletion.

The gamble the Government is taking is that global depletion arrives later than local depletion. As for global depletion, the figure of 40 years of reserves left is often quoted but that is misleading. It implies that problems will only occur in the far future but that may not be true.

The problem is not running out, the problem is hitting the halfway point, known as Peak Oil (and Peak Gas), where global production starts to decline and can no longer keep up with demand, causing prices to rise dramatically.

According to geologist Dr Colin Campbell of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, the peak date is due to arrive by 2010. That is two years before Singapore's LNG terminal is even scheduled to start operations.

The Singapore Government deserves credit for pushing ahead with the LNG initiative, though it is hardly an original idea - many countries are also setting up LNG terminals. America is planning 40 terminals.

Even Mexico, home to the world's second largest oilfield, has started importing LNG. This tells us something about the sheer level of demand that will be coming up for LNG in the coming years.

Singapore is joining a race that has already started. LNG will be traded just like crude oil is today. Qatar is setting up an energy trading exchange. The natural gas will, quite naturally, go to the highest bidders.

What is quite certain is, at the end point, it is not going to get any cheaper. There is nothing cheap about LNG. It is at best an interim measure while society considers other solutions.

Although the other alternatives for base-load electrical power - nuclear, coal, geothermal, ocean tidal and thermal - are fraught with all kinds of environmental, political and technical risks, they need to be considered well before the global peak date arrives.

While making preparations for the LNG terminal, the Government should also take a close look into alternative energy sources - while there is still time.
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