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  Yahoo News 30 May 06
Netherlands must boost flood defences: forecasts

PlanetSave 31 May 06
 Dutch preparing for 35-centimeter (14-inch) ocean rise by 2050
 Written by Toby Sterling

THE HAGUE, Netherlands (AP): The Dutch can expect wetter winters and a threatening rise in sea levels of up to 35 centimeters (14 inches) by 2050, said a report Tuesday by the national weather service.

While many countries discuss global warming and greenhouse gas emissions as theories, the Dutch see climate change as a matter of survival demanding concrete action.

"Sixty percent of our country lies beneath sea level, so the effect of a rise in the level of the oceans is very noticeable,'' said Melanie Schultz van Haegen, the secretary of transport and water, after receiving the report from the Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute known by its Dutch acronym KNMI.

But she said there was "no acute danger'' to the country's sea defenses, which are among the best in the world.

The Dutch earmark more than US$1.2 billion (euro1 billion) annually -- around 1 percent of the national budget -- to maintain and improve the dikes, dunes, pumps, sluices and windmills that work constantly to keep the country dry.

Those defenses must take into account the consequences of global warming, but Schultz van Haegen said it could be done within existing spending plans. KNMI put forward a range of scenarios it thought were strong enough to base policy on, using measurements and modeling by its own scientists as well as the most recent international studies.

It predicted an increase in average temperature in the Netherlands of at 1-2 degrees Celsius (1.8-3.6 degrees F) by 2050, compared with 1990, and a rise in sea level by 15-35 centimeters (6-14 inches).

"If you plan a children's birthday party in the Netherlands in July, you know it can be great weather, but you can also have a cloudburst. If you're prudent, you're prepared for both scenarios,'' said KNMI climate expert Gerbrand Komen, presenting the findings. "It can also snow in July, but you don't really need to plan for it,'' he said.

The report says rainfall will likely increase by 4-14 percent in the winter, and intense cloudbursts will become more common in the summer. But scientists cannot predict whether overall summer rain will decrease or increase, he said.

The history of the Netherlands, whose very name means "the low-lying countries,'' has been shaped by its struggle to cope with excess water, beginning before Roman times.

The country's economic heart lies in the delta where the Rhine and Maas rivers meet the North Sea. Since a 1953 flood that killed 1,800 people, sea defenses have been engineered to withstand any storm but the biggest predicted once every 10,000 years.

River dikes are supposed to hold against a sustained rainfall statistically likely every 250 years. By comparison, New Orleans' levies were designed against storms up to those likely to occur once in 100 years.

But even with global warming, the North Sea is not expected to generate storms the size or intensity of Hurricane Katrina.

Schultz van Haegen said she expected the European Union to agree on flood cooperation guidelines in July. "Problems can't be pushed off on lower-lying countries, but each country must undertake a package of measures to take care of rain that falls in its borders,'' she said.

In April, the Dutch government said it expected to meet its Kyoto Protocol targets for reducing carbon dioxide emissions.

Under the treaty, the Netherlands must cut greenhouse gas output 6 percent by 2012, from 1990 levels.

Yahoo News 30 May 06
Netherlands must boost flood defences: forecasts

THE HAGUE (AFP) - Dutch authorities will have to boost their already significant flood protection measures to cope with increasingly warmer, wetter winters and summer droughts, according to forecasts.

Four possible future climate scenarios for 2050 presented by the official Dutch Meteorological Institute (KNMI) show global warming continuing apace and sea levels rising.

For the Netherlands, the next four and a half decades will bring milder but wetter winters and drier summers interspersed with sudden extreme rainfall.

Already the Netherlands has one of the world's highest standards of flood protection, enough to withstand a storm of a magnitude that statisticians say occurs only once every 10,000 years.

Around 60 percent of the Netherlands is below sea level, protected by an intricate system of dams and dykes. The Dutch also invented the polder, land reclaimed from the water.

"The effects of a future rise in sea level will be felt very strongly here," Deputy Transport Minister Melanie Schultz van Haegen said. A devastating flood in 1953 that killed more than 2,000 people prompted the authorities to launch an unprecedented plan for coastal protection.

But with the KNMI predicting a rise in sea level of up to 35 centimeters (13.5 inches) by 2050, protection would have to be stepped up. "We must be prepared for climate change," Schultz van Haegen said. She said drier summers were also a cause for concern because dykes could dry out and burst.

The KNMI stressed they had left out the worst-case scenarios with the most extreme results.

"With these four scenarios you have a good chance that what happens in the next 50 years will be within these expectations," KNMI director Frits Brouwer said. The predictions were released to enable the government to anticipate the pace of climate change and adapt policies accordingly, the KNMI said.

There will be changes in energy demand if winters warm up, while a warmer climate can influence agriculture because more can be grown but summer droughts could have adverse effects, and yields from wind energy parks can drop if wind speeds drop, as some scenarios predict, Schultz predicted.

The Netherlands is also working with other European countries on water management. The country is the end point for several big rivers coming from Germany and Belgium, such as The Rhine and the Meuse that can be affected by either sudden droughts or rising water levels as the earth's temperature rises.

"Hopefully in June the European Union will present a new 'high water' plan based on a joint French-Dutch initiative to make sure the low lying countries are not stuck with the problems," Schultz said. "We cannot stop glaciers melting but if we work together we can prevent that the Netherlands becomes Europe's drain," she added.

But the hardest blow the KNMI delivered to the Dutch Tuesday was that, according to the latest scenarios, the legendary Elfstedentocht ice skating marathon, held on over 200 kilometers of natural ice in the Friesland province, is less likely to occur in future.

Although the last marathon, named Elfstedentocht because it goes past 11 (elf) towns (steden), was held in 1997, each winter when the temperature drops below zero Celsius the Dutch get so-called Elfsteden fever.

The national primetime news shows report daily on the marathon's "ice masters" who check the state of the ice and have to give the all clear before the marathon can start. In 1997 over 16,000 people participated in the Elfstedentocht.
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