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  Today Online 20 Jan 05
Is Singapore quake-proof?
Lin Yanqin yanqinl@newstoday.com.sg

Experts call for study to assess how island will cope in event of an earthquake

COULD Singapore ever feel more than tremors during an earthquake? Can our buildings withstand powerful shudders, keeping in mind the island's extensively reclaimed land?

These are questions Harvard earthquake expert Professor James Rice and Associate Professor Lee Fook Hou from the National University of Singapore's (NUS) Civil Engineering Department think Singapore should mull over.

Assoc Prof Lee, who has conducted research on the effects of seismic activity on local buildings, posed the question: "Are we doing enough?" "There isn't enough data ? we are not sure which buildings may collapse and which won't," he said.

Proposing that an agency or an institute be set up to conduct research on earth science, Assoc Prof Lee called for more support from the Government in sustained research in the field.

"We need to know where we stand," he said. While some research on earthquakes has been done by the Civil Engineering Department at NUS, these were mostly one-off projects. In the past, tremors have been felt whenever an earthquake occurred in nearby Sumatra, the most recent being in March last year, which measured 8.7 on the Richter scale.

Speaking to reporters about his studies of the Great Sumatran Fault before his public lecture at NUS today, Prof Rice warned that an earthquake in the same region, measuring slightly higher at 9 on the Richter scale, could double the effects felt in Singapore.

Add to the fact that clay soil significantly magnifies the amplitude of each seismic wave, it is possible that Singaporeans could feel more than a mild tremor if a large earthquake hits.

"Singapore stands on extensive soft marine clays and sands. You have massive cargo ports and harbours on reclaimed land," Prof Rice said. "I think you should put in place a set of studies to realistically assess the plausible size of earthquakes and the detailed response of structures in Singapore."

As Singapore's history does not go back long enough to document earthquakes which may have occurred centuries ago, it should not think it is immune to the threat of a major earthquake off Sumatra's western coast, Prof Rice said.

He likened Singapore to Mexico City, which was devastated by an earthquake in 1985 because it was built on the bed of an old lake. Prof Rice added that scientists in the United States learned that Los Angeles was built on "terribly treacherous ground" only in the 1970s as the faults under the city had been inactive after a big earthquake on the San Andreas fault in 1857.

"It's just what happens when you build cities fast: you don't get a good picture of the seismic environment that you live in," said Prof Rice. Prof Lee and Prof Rice also hoped to organise a gathering of scientists from all over the world to discuss seismic activities and its consequences, which would be the first of its kind here, early next year.
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