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  Today Online 19 Dec 05
Is disaster moving northwards? Nicobar Islands quake could have serious implications for S'pore and M'sia: Thai expert
By Jose Raymond

NICOBAR ISLANDS : As the world takes time out to remember the 290,000 victims of the December 26 tsunami that hit the region last year, some experts are already issuing a serious warning: Look ahead at what could happen next.

Of particular worry are the remarks made by Thai meteorologist and seismologist Dr Smith Dharmasaroja.

In recent interviews, the Thai scientist has warned that the epicentre of the next earthquake would be further north than last year's temblors, which brings the Straits of Malacca and - more disturbingly - Singapore and Malaysia into range.

And Dr Dharmasaroja is not a man who should be ignored. In 1998, he was the man who predicted that Thailand's Phuket island and the surrounding Andaman region was at risk.

At that time he was called a "rumour-monger" and a "madman", out to ruin the country's tourism industry.

Having sadly been proved right last December, he is now a vice-minister in the Office of the Prime Minister of Thailand, and has been tasked with putting in place early warning systems along the Andaman coastline.

Said the 70-year-old in an interview with TODAY: "We can only say, by historical data, that every 50, 80 or 100 years a big earthquake and tsunami will occur. This possibility is based on current seismological data.

"The latest data shows that the epicentre is moving north towards the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, and if an earthquake takes place in this area, this would cause greater effects in the Straits of Malacca than what happened last year.

"If the epicentre continues to move north and a tsunami occurs, the wave will move towards the Straits of Malacca, which is narrow and shallow. "This can cause great damage if early preparations are not taken."

He added that he recently concluded studies on such a possibility with other scientists. "We have made the simulation tests, and now we need to look at the data to see the impact of a tsunami if an earthquake happens in the north, and, using this data, set up early warning systems."

Though he refuses to be drawn into predicting when such a tsunami will strike, Dr Dharmasaroja said that his studies are based on tsunami record data that stretches back for 200 years, which he has been analysing over the last 30 years.

"There have been 12 tsunamis in the last two centuries and the last big one before Dec 26 last year occurred in the Indian Ocean, created by the explosion of the Krakatoa volcano 122 years ago," he said.

"Sometimes the really big ones occur in 80 to 100-year cycles. In 1941, there was an earthquake near the Nicobar Islands which measured 8.7 on the Richter scale and in 1914 there was one that was 7.2.

"Both of these had their epicentres north of the Dec 26 earthquake, east of Sumatra. Based on these records, we are due for another big earthquake in roughly the same area - and it could send waves surging through the Straits of Malacca which could smash into Malaysia and Singapore."

Associate Professor Dr David Higgitt of the National University of Singapore's geography department said that while there was no evidence to suggest that Singapore could be hit by a tsunami, he did agree that recent studies and data have shown that there was stress building up in the Nicobar Islands area.

He added that geophysicists in the United States are also studying the reasons behind the substantial move northwards.

He also noted that there had been an earthquake at the Nicobar Islands in March, which triggered a minor tsunami.

"But for the Straits of Malacca to be hit by primary waves, it would have to be a huge earthquake," said Dr Higgitt. He added that Dr Dharmasaroja's studies are based primarily on historical data and the huge assumption that a major earthquake would strike the Nicobar Islands.

Added Dr Higgitt: "I have not seen the data of the simulation tests and it would not be fair for me to comment until I do."

But until then, Dr Dharmasaroja is urging the governments of Malaysia and Singapore to take proper precautions, including setting up early warning systems.

Said the scientist, who was featured on the front page of The New Straits Times of Malaysia yesterday: "I don't want the Singaporean and Malaysian governments to make the mistakes which the Thai government made. The early warning system is something which they should seriously invest in because it will save a lot of lives.

"In fact, I've suggested to the Indonesian government that it should not allow any human habitation on the northern coast of Sumatra as these areas are prone to be hit."

But what can these countries do if something as big as the Dec 26 tsunami does strike?

"A good warning system can help. A system that warns people at least one hour in advance is good, because it gives them time to head for higher ground. You should build structures that are strong enough to withstand the waves," he said.

"You also need to educate people on what to do. For instance, for fishermen and ship-owners, when there is a tsunami warning, they need to know to move their ships out to sea, not dock them. "This is because a tsunami gets bigger the closer it moves inland. You do not feel the tsunami when you are in deep water. Governments should consider putting up buffer zones along the coastline, perhaps by planting strong coconut trees, bamboo shoots, or mangrove plants."

Dr Dharmasaroja says that he is more than willing to help in convincing the sceptics. "They should just take the time to set up a committee to study this phenomenon and, if they are willing, I will produce my research to show why I believe that an earthquake will take place in the Nicobar Islands area," he said. - TODAY

 Today Online 20 Dec 05
Tsunami ... tsunami not ... Not all geologists agree with tsunami prophet's warning for Singapore
Ansley Ng ansley@newstoday.com.sg

IN recent interviews, Thai tsunami prophet Dr Smith Dharmasaroja said the epicentre of the next earthquake in the region could move further north from last year's temblors, which puts Malaysia and Singapore at risk of being hit by killer waves.

Since predicting correctly the Dec 26 tsunami last year, Dr Dharmasaroja, who was then labelled a "madman" and "rumour-monger", has been taken seriously by many who do not wish to see a repeat of the disaster that killed 290,000.

Two days ago, Dr Dharmasaroja--now a vice-minister in the Office of the Prime Minister of Thailand--told Today that, based on his studies, an earthquake with its heart slightly north of last year's epicentre could "send waves surging through the Straits of Malacca, which could smash into Malaysia and Singapore".

But some local and overseas experts are sceptical. One of them, Professor Pan Tso-Chien, Dean of School of Civil and Environmental Engineering at the Nanyang Technological University, does not think that tidal waves could "smash" into Singapore.

Dr Dharmasaroja's prediction did not consider energy loss that the waves would suffer as a result of the area's terrain, said Prof Pan. To cause tsunamis, an earthquake larger than a measurement of 7 on the Richter scale would be needed, he said.

There is no way to accurately predict where quake epicentres would be. But judging by history, earthquakes of such magnitudes would most likely happen on the Western side of the Andaman Islands, said Prof Pan.

And the Andaman Islands would act as a buffer before waves make their way eastbound across the Andaman Sea, towards Thailand and the Straits of Malacca.

Prof Pan also believes that the narrow Straits would further slow down the tidal waves coming into the area. "I am not sure if the wave energy that would be transmitted to the mouth of the Straits of Malacca would be bigger than what we saw last year," said Prof Pan.

Another expert, University of Colorado geological sciences professor Roger Bilham, noted that a 1881 quake measuring 7.9 on the Richter scale, centred on the Nicobar Islands, "caused no tsunami to propagate eastwards".

"My reading of the historical data is that only in very rare M9 earthquakes (quakes measuring more than 9 on the scale) do tsunami propagate eastward from the Sumatra-Nicobar-Andaman system," said Dr Bilham.

When contacted last night, Dr Dharmasaroja said he agreed with Prof Pan that waves lose energy if they enter the Straits of Malacca, but said they would "gain height" instead. He also disputed the argument that the Straits, which he estimated was about 1,000m deep, is too shallow to sustain tsunamis.

Last year, the waves that hit Penang--where more than 30 were killed--travelled in depths of about 1,300m before unleashing its power, said Dr Dharmasaroja. "There could have more casualties in Penang if not for the tip of the Sumatra island, which blocked the waves. It's up to you to believe me or not," he said of his prediction.

Though the National Environment Agency (NEA) thinks it is unlikely that Singapore would be hit by a tsunami, it is not taking chances.

One of its units, the Meteorological Services Division, plans to enhance seismic stations in Singapore to improve the detection of quakes that could cause tsunamis. The NEA is also working with the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore to enhance the local tidal gauge network.

The New Straits Times 18 Dec 05
SPECIAL FOCUS: TSUNAMI the next big one Sheridan Mahavera

IN 1998, Thai meteorologist Dr Smith Dharmasaroja predicted a tsunami would hit Thailand in 2004. But his warning was ignored.

Now a Vice-Minister in the Office of the Thai Prime Minister, Smith recently gave another dire warning — a tsunami is likely to strike Malaysia and Singapore. He talks to SHERIDAN MAHAVERA about his prediction.

Q: How did you arrive at your prediction that another tsunami could hit Malaysia and Singapore?

A: After studying the 200-year tsunami record, I found that there have been 12 tsunamis. The last big one before Dec 26 occurred in the Indian Ocean and it was a tsunami created by the explosion of the Krakatoa volcano 122 years ago. Sometimes the really big ones occur in 80 to 100 year cycles


Q: So, according to the cycle of occurrences you expect another quake?

A: Near the Nicobar islands there was an earthquake in 1941 that measured 8.7 on the Richter scale and in 1914 there was one that was 7.2. Both of these had their epicentres north of the Dec 26 earthquake (east of Sumatra). So according to these records, we are scheduled for another big earthquake in roughly the same area and it could send waves surging through the Straits of Malacca and smash into Malaysia and Singapore.

Q: Will the epicentre be in the Straits of Malacca?

A: The epicentre need not be in the straits. It could be north of it and this is enough to send killer waves to both countries. In fact, I’ve made suggestions to the Indonesia Government that it should not allow any human habitation on the northern coast of Sumatra as these areas are prone to be hit. The epicentre for the last one was off the western coast of Sumatra. Malaysia was only hit by a secondary wave that ricocheted off the big primary wave that struck Thailand. If the epicentre moves north, then Malaysia will be hit by a primary wave.

Q: So we are overdue for another big one?

A: We are definitely overdue based on the 100-year cycle and because this one is also close to shore, it will cause a lot of damage. We have to learn the characteristics of nature in order to live peacefully with it. That is why Thailand is trying to set up a warning system. We have built 62 warning towers in all of the six provinces which were hard hit by last year’s disaster and we will be deploying buoys and scanners in the Andaman Sea next year.

Q: How long do we have before a tsunami hits us again? Two, four, 10 years?

A: I cannot say. How close the prediction is correlates to the cycle.

Q: Recently, some people spread text messages in Malaysia stating that a tsunami would hit us on Dec 26 again this year or maybe next year.

A: I know about that and these are irresponsible people who are basing their assumptions on a recent interview I gave to a Singapore newspaper. Unfortunately, they read the article and gave their own interpretation. But I never mentioned any specific date because that is impossible. If I could predict the date so accurately then I would be a millionaire (laughs).

Q: So what can we do, given the fact that we will be hit?

A: A good warning system can help. A system that warns people at least one hour in advance is good because it gives you time to head to higher ground. If you build strong enough structures, then maybe they can withstand the waves. You also need to educate people on what to do. For instance, for fishermen and ship owners, when there is a warning they need to move their ships out to sea, not dock them. This is because a tsunami gets bigger the closer it moves inland. You do not feel the tsunami when you are in deep water. Governments should consider putting up buffer zones along the coastline such as by planting strong coconut trees, bamboo or mangroves..

Q: How can we protect buildings which lie along the coastlines?

A: You cannot care about property. It will be destroyed every time there is a tsunami. Anything on the beach must be built on strong pillars and have no walls so that waves can pass through. The lowest floor of the structure must also be higher than the height of the last recorded tsunami.

Q: How do you predict earthquakes and tsunamis?

A: I have been studying earthquakes for 25 years and have gathered information and historical records from the United States and Japan. There is no technology to predict earthquakes but you can forecast by looking at historical records.

Q: These quakes result from the movement of the tectonic plates?

A: In geology you can see the movement of plates that make up the earth’s crust. In our region of the Indian Ocean there is the Eurasian plate, and the Indian plate beneath it. In the Dec 26 tsunami, the Indian plate was raised by about 40 metres and that created the tsunami. Such large vertical movements of the plates are caused by accumulated energy that emanates from the earth’s mantle, below the crust. When that energy is released it creates a big movement of the plates. That energy is accumulated over time and released every 40 to 50 years or so.

Q: Only earthquakes which involve vertical movements in the earth’s plates will cause a tsunami?

A: Correct. In March this year, there was another large quake whose epicentre was south of the Dec 26 tremor. But this one did not cause a tsunami because the plates moved parallel to each other, there was no vertical movement. But there is something else that might cause another tsunami in our neighbourhood. Recently, British and Russian scientists have discovered an underwater mountain range measuring about two kilometres in height in the Andaman stretching from Rangoon, in Myanmar, to the Nicobar Islands. It was created by the accumulation of sediment from rivers in Myanmar and Bangladesh. As it lies on the faultline, any moderate earthquake measuring 5 on the Richter scale or more can cause the mountains to topple and this can cause a tsunami. So you see, we don’t have to wait for a major earthquake to see another tsunami.

Q: Did your government and people think you were crazy when you predicted the Dec 26 tsunami in 1998?

A: They criticised me heavily. They said I was going to destroy Phuket’s tourism industry. But I was the director-general of the Meteorology Department at the time and it was my duty to warn people about these things. (laughs)

Q: How did you feel when you were proven right?

A: (laughs) I had to come back to work for the Government after retiring 11 years ago. I’m now in charge of building the warning system. But I wish I was wrong (about the prediction). When I first went public with the prediction, I had written a warning letter and sent out copies to the Prime Minister’s office, the ministry I was under and the authorities in six provinces. Now, relatives of those who died in the disaster want me to give them the original copy so that they can sue the Thai Government for negligence.

Bernama 18 Dec 05
Thai Seismologist Denies Warning Tsunami In M'sia, S'pore This Month
By D. Arul Rajoo

BANGKOK, Dec 18 (Bernama) -- Thai famed seismologist and meteorologist Dr Smith Dharmasaroja said that he had never predicted that tsunami would hit Malaysia and Singapore between December and January.

Dr Dharmasaroja, 70, who predicted in 1998 that a killer tsunami would hit Phuket and its surrounding Andaman coastline, said it was impossible to predict when an earthquake and tsunami would occur and no scientist was able to pinpoint the exact date.

"We can only say by historical data that every 50, 80 or 100 years a big earthquake and tsunami will occur. We cannot tell the exact date...if I can tell (exact date) I will be a rich man," he said when asked to comment on widespread rumours that tsunami will hit the two countries soon.

Emails and short messaging service (SMSs) quoting Dr Dharmasaroja, have been circulated in Malaysia and Singapore since last month warning people to stay away from beaches in December and January.

The rumours came after he warned that the two neighbours were in danger of being hit by tsunami as the epicentres of earthquakes had been moving northwards to the Andaman and Nicobar islands.

On Dec 26, last year, a powerful 9.0 earthquake on the richter scale off the coast of Sumatera triggered a massive tsunami that killed over 200,000 people and made millions homeless in several countries in the region.

In 1998, Dr Dharmasaroja, then head of the Thai Meteorological Department, predicted that a tsunami would hit the country's Andaman coastline but his warning was not taken seriously.

After the tsunami that killed about 5,300 people in Thailand, the government recalled him, made him a vice minister in the Prime Minister's Department in charge of overseeing the setting up of the National Disaster Warning Centre that has been putting up a tsunami early warning system in place.

Although several parts in Perlis, Kedah, Penang and Perak were affected by the tsunami, a large part of the western coast of Malaysia and Singapore escaped the brunt as the Sumatera island provided the shield.

Dr Dharmasaroja said his warning that Malaysia and Singapore could face tsunami was not meant to cause panic but merely stating the possibility based on current seismology data.

He said he made the observation based on the latest data that showed the epicentre was moving north towards the Andaman and Nicobar islands and that this would cause greater effects in the Strait of Melaka.

"If the epicentre continues to move north and tsunami occurs, the wave will move towards the Strait of Melaka which is narrow and shallow. This can cause great damage if early preparations are not taken," he said.

Dr Dharmasaroja said he hoped that Malaysian and Singapore authorities would take note of the epicentre movements and take the necessary steps. "We need to look at the data, make simulations to see the impact of tsunami if earthquake happens on the north and set up early warning systems," he added.

Thailand is currently building 76 warning towers in its six southern provinces while three buoys costing 180 million baht would be operational in the Andaman sea by middle of next year.

The Star 7 Dec 05
Tsunami SMS making waves

PUTRAJAYA: The public should not believe e-mail or SMS warning of a tsunami striking Malaysia between now and January.

Deputy Science, Technology and Innovation Minister Datuk Kong Cho Ha said no one could predict an earthquake or its magnitude.

"It's possible to say there will be a major earthquake in Tokyo, for instance. But it is impossible to know whether it will happen next year or 100 years from now.

"It's true that some experts, after analysing data, have predicted that the epicentre of (the next) earthquake in our region will be further north, towards the Andaman and Nicobar islands and that this will cause greater effect in the Straits of Malacca.

"But it's irresponsible to cause panic by spreading any message stating the exact time that a tsunami will occur," he told reporters after launching a seminar on e-community by Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia here yesterday.

"Anybody getting messages warning of a tsunami over the next few weeks should ignore them. They're not true," said Kong.

A few weeks ago, Thai seismologist and meteorologist Dr Smith Dharmasaroja warned that Malaysia and Singapore were in danger as the epicentres of quakes had been moving northwards to the Andaman and Nicobar islands.

The Dec 26 tsunami occurred off the coast of Sumatra. Five years ago, Dr Dharmasaroja, then head of the Thai Meteorological Department, predicted that a tsunami would hit Phuket, but the government did not take his warning seriously and called him a mad man.

Today, the 70-year-old has been recalled by Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and made the head of the Thailand National Disaster Warning Centre, which has been putting a tsunami early warning system in place.

An email, quoting Dr Dharmasaroja, has been making the rounds in Malaysia since last week warning people to stay away from beaches in December and January. UKM deputy vice-chancellor (research and innovation) Prof Dr Ibrahim Komoo said he received two messages via SMS over the past few weeks warning of a tsunami in Malaysia.

Dr Ibrahim, an expert in geology who has conducted research on earthquakes at Akademi Sains, said people should not believe such messages unless they were issued by the Meteorological Services Department.
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