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Straits Times, 4 Feb 05 The great Antarctic meltdown by Neo Hui Min LONDON - THE signs are dire - a huge Antarctic ice sheet previously expected to be stable until at least 2100 has started to fall apart. If it goes completely, sea level will rise by up to 4.5m. Low-lying areas, including Bangkok, Bangladesh and London, could be covered by water. Just four years ago, an international scientific group from the United Nations deemed that the West Antarctic ice sheet was unlikely to collapse. It even thought that the ice sheet could gain mass. But the latest discovery by scientists from the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) is chilling. They found that ice blocks from the ice sheet are flowing into the sea at 250 cubic km a year. These blocks contribute to 15 per cent or more of the 2mm rise in sea level every year. BAS director Chris Rapley told a conference of international scientists that Antarctica, once thought to be a 'slumbering giant', is now a 'giant awakened'. The conference in Exeter, titled Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change, was called by British Prime Minister Tony Blair to set the scientific basis for Britain to make a case for quicker action on climate change. Environment Secretary Margaret Beckett warned that the global warming expected over the coming decades is 'virtually inevitable'. While the latest findings from the Antarctic survey came as a shock, scientists have been making other chilling discoveries about changes in the Arctic. It had been previously believed that if the earth could keep temperature rise to within two degrees of pre-industrial levels, then catastrophic changes could be held off. But projections now show that at the current rate, the earth would warm by two degrees, by between 2026 and 2060. The warming would be even more pronounced in the Arctic. 'On land, warming over Greenland will lead to substantial melting of the Greenland ice sheet, contributing to increases in sea levels around the world,' said Oxford University's Dr Mark New. 'The tens of millions of people living in low-lying areas such as Bangladesh, Bangkok, Kolkata, Dhaka, Manila and the US states of Florida and Louisiana are particularly susceptible to rising sea levels,' he added. If the Greenland ice sheet melts as well, sea level could increase by 7m. This is on top of the 4.87m which the West Antarctic ice sheet could produce. Scientists say that sea ice keeps the planet relatively cooler. Hence, when ice melts, the warming effect will increase faster globally. They now believe that staying within a two- degree range 'cannot be regarded as safe'. The world needs to cut carbon dioxide emissions fast and in greater proportions, said Mr Steffen Kallbekken, research fellow at the Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research in Oslo. 'Even with a relatively modest assumption about what level of mitigation effort is feasible today, the results show that we must be able to reduce our emissions at a rate that is three to seven times greater if we wait 20 years before reducing emissions,' Mr Kallbekken warned. 'Those who want to delay are thus gambling that the costs of abatement will drop and the public pressure to abate will increase over time as a result of this delay.' links Related articles on Global issues: global warming issues, policies Related articles on Global issues: biodiversity biodiversity loss, extinction threats, commercial applications of biodiversity Related articles on Global issues: tsunami and the environment Media and other articles discussing the role of mangroves and coral reefs in mitigating the effect and the impact on the natural environment and the people that depend on them. |
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