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  The New Sunday Times, New Straits Times, 9 Jan 05
COVER STORY: Preparing for future shocks
by Marina Emmanuel and Elizabeth John

There is a whole list of lessons that need to be heeded from the tsunami tragedy, including the protection of our natural resources and getting prepared for any future calamities.

TWO weeks after the Dec 26 earthquake and the tsunami that changed the fate and fortune of millions around the world, nations continue to count their dead. While the mammoth effort to bury the dead and help the living gains speed and urgency, international agencies, scientists and specialists the world are just beginning their difficult task — assessing the full cost of damage to the environment and food supply. And figuring out what to do next.

The United Nations Environment Programme has mobilised US$1 million (RM3.8 million) for environmental needs assessments. Needs that, if not met, could pose serious health risks like solid waste disposal, sewage treatment and salinisation of drinking water. Needs that, if fulfilled, could help save lives in the future like an effective early warning system.

The much-talked about warning system will be a priority for Malaysia. "It may now be an item on our wish list. But I’m certain that the Meteorological Services Department is looking into this matter critically now," says National Oceanography Directorate director Professor Dr Ho Sinn Chye. There is no truly reliable tsunami warning system, at least not the kind that could have given immediate warning in the situation we just faced, he said. Scientists also warn that establishing a monitoring system is not a task the country can undertake by itself. With a tsunami travelling at speeds of 600 to 700 kmph, a warning system cannot just constitute a few tidal gauges somewhere off the country’s cost and watching them, says Professor Dr Mohd Ibrahim Mohamed. "It would not give us much of a warning," says the professor from Universiti Putra Malaysia’s Environmental Sciences Faculty. For a monitoring system to be effective, it has to be a network supported by all countries in the region.

But even if a sophisticated monitoring system were to be set up, there would still be precious little time between detection and impact, said Nizam Basiron, research fellow at the Maritime Institute of Malaysia’s Centre for Coastal and Marine Environment. Equally important is having a quick and efficient system to disseminate information to the public, whether it’s someone on the beach with a loud hailer, announcements on television or a network of alarms, he says. Getting the message across as quickly as possible is something the Department of Irrigation and Drainage is already working on. "We have a national flood warning system and we are working with the Meteorological Services Department to see how we can expand it to include warning for tsunamis," says DID director-general Datuk Keizrul Abdullah. The issue of warning systems is expected to be high on the agenda of two upcoming international meetings — the "Sustainable Development of Small Island Developing States" which begins tomorrow and the "World Conference on Disaster Reduction" the following week. In the meantime, however, many countries have offered assistance and advice, and countries in the region are looking at it as an expensive but worthwhile investment.

Experts have also sounded the call and begun work to assess the effects on marine food sources, erosion of beaches, mangroves and corals. Universiti Sains Malaysia School of Biological Sciences deputy dean Professor Zulfigar Yasin said fish farmers and other aquaculture breeders have been badly affected. Many species of high-value fish like the siakap, jenahak and kerapu were found washed ashore Penang beaches, he said. "They must have been reared in cages and were being fattened in readiness for the Chinese New Year," said Zulfigar. "Fish farmers must, therefore, be very badly affected by this, along with other aquaculture breeders such as those cultivating oysters and the cockle breeders in Juru in Seberang Prai. "The impact of how many oysters there are now left to be harvested in a few months, along with calculations on where our food resources from the sea are going to be sourced from, needs to be made soonest."

One agency that has already carried out a thorough assessment is the DID. It has checked the coastal bunds and gated structures, as well as concrete walls and the large stones that all serve to keep sea water from breaching the coastline. A safety assessment showed the structures had not failed, says Keizrul, although there has been some damage.

Scientists are also finding that there are lessons to be learnt everywhere in the wake of the tsunami. Lesson number one is that natural systems of coastal protection like mangroves and coral reefs should be maintained. These would have absorbed a substantial amount of the beating tsunami-hit coasts took on Dec 26, said marine scientists. Without them, coastal zones would have been naked and open to the full onslaught of the seismic waves.

Another lesson we could learn, says UPM’s Ibrahim, is the value of not building all the way up to the shoreline. "There are regulations regarding this which we seem to have forgotten. "We should start taking it seriously now that we have experienced this tragedy."

Ho has got scientists and experts at local universities talking and planning studies on coastal erosion and the impact on living systems in devastated parts of the coast. "There just isn’t any local data and we have no idea exactly how much we have lost or what to do about it," says Associate Professor Dr Kamaruzzaman Yunus, Kolej Universiti Sains dan Teknologi Malaysia’s Institute of Oceanography deputy director. "We may not know the full extent of the damage for years but must start collecting information now, for future use," he adds.

After all, we’ve already suffered one rude awakening. What excuse would we have for being caught unawares the next time?

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